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Off topic: 我们这里有外汇市场专家吗?(M+M+M!)
Thread poster: xxxchance
xxxchance
French to Chinese
+ ...
Jan 12, 2007

自从受到Kevin关于金钱的启蒙教育后,这几天满脑子都是钱钱钱

去年我通过MB往国内汇了一些欧元,主要想法是准备支付国内的合作者,我是不等客户付款就自己马上付款的。其次就是为了买书籍词典和回国使用方便。圣诞前欧元与人民币汇率高,我当时换了一些,,还有一些因为有些手续,最主要由于我缺少理财概念,所以耽误未换。现在欧元与人民币的汇率不停下降,按圣诞前的汇率,我已亏2000多RMB,所以考虑是应该马上换人民币呢?还是继续等等,也许在春节,或4月份法国大选后欧元与人民币的汇率还会回升?

欢迎各种分析,先谢了。


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Wenjer Leuschel  Identity Verified
Taiwan
Local time: 11:44
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只有一句話 Jan 12, 2007

不要在中國存外匯,外匯應該留在國外,匯入中國的外匯應該立即兌換成人民幣,因為人民幣只有升值的可能,沒有貶值的可能;暫時性的升貶可能,長期來看卻只有升值的可能。

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xxxchance
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这个道理我明白 Jan 12, 2007

但是圣诞前现汇买入价升到10.36, 现在欲只有10.02。按你的看法,圣诞前的汇率是因为什么原因那么高呢?为什么外汇应该留在国外?你的看法是要用时才往中国汇,否则会有什么危险吗?

Wenjer Leuschel wrote:

不要在中國存外匯,外匯應該留在國外,匯入中國的外匯應該立即兌換成人民幣,因為人民幣只有升值的可能,沒有貶值的可能;暫時性的升貶可能,長期來看卻只有升值的可能。


[Edited at 2007-01-12 14:41]


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Wenjer Leuschel  Identity Verified
Taiwan
Local time: 11:44
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不太好解釋 Jan 12, 2007

chance wrote:

但是圣诞前现汇买入价升到10.36, 现在欲只有10.02。按你的看法,圣诞前的汇率是因为什么原因那么高呢?为什么外汇应该留在国外?你的看法是要用时才往中国汇,否则会有什么危险吗?


外匯的短期變動和強勢貨幣之間的相對變動有關。聖誕節前,歐元對美元的匯率曾經是 1:1.328,這是歐元對人民幣相對升高將近 4% 的主要原因。目前歐元對美元的匯率大約在 1:1.279 左右。人民幣的升貶大體上是跟著美元的,但人民幣長期相對於美元則是必定升值的趨勢。

其實,你關心的應該是:何時是將歐元匯入中國的恰當時機?首先,無論何時,只要歐元對美元的變動不大,既然匯入就要轉成人民幣,因為變動幅度在 5% 之內,對小資金都是無利可圖的。但匯入的時機應該在歐元相對於美元呈現漲勢時。這種時機必須長期觀察歐元和美元的匯率,更確切說,主要應該看歐洲和美國之間的貿易狀況,明白他們何時進行結算。歐元在年中和年尾時,相對於美元大體上都是呈現漲勢的;這與雙邊貿易結算的時機有關,不太好解釋,但這是可以從長期的數據上看出來。

你既然關心的是何時匯入歐元,那麼簡單說,現在不要匯入,每一季末或年中會是較好的時機,但要看歐美之間的貿易狀況決定;如果美國賣超,那就不是時機,反之則可以大量匯入歐元到中國換成人民幣,等著美元貶值,你很自然就賺到人民幣升值和美元貶值的雙重好處。


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xxxchance
French to Chinese
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TOPIC STARTER
文哲, Jan 12, 2007

谢你的参谋,我会再考虑。欧元在中国的存款利息确实比欧洲低。有时政局的变化也会影响汇率。我会注意观察,借此机会学习学习。

[Edited at 2007-01-12 16:31]


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Han Li  Identity Verified
China
Local time: 11:44
English to Chinese
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可以参考中行网站的汇评 Jan 13, 2007

我才刚接触外币,也不知道怎么分析,只给你提供点链接,希望有用。
中行国际业务
http://www.bank-of-china.com/cn/static/fund.html
汇市日评
http://www.bank-of-china.com/cn/common/fe_daily.jsp?category=ROOT>>>л>
春夏秋冬理财
http://www.bank-of-china.com/cn/common/fourth.jsp?category=ROOT>>ʽ𼰹ҵ>Ͷ>ﶬ
行情分析室
http://www.bank-of-china.com/cn/common/felist.jsp?category=ROOT>>>ʽڿѶ>ýϢ

[Edited at 2007-01-13 01:01]


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isahuang
Local time: 23:44
English to Chinese
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Euro will remain strong for 2007, and RMB will also rise Jan 13, 2007

chance wrote:

但是圣诞前现汇买入价升到10.36, 现在欲只有10.02。按你的看法,圣诞前的汇率是因为什么原因那么高呢?为什么外汇应该留在国外?你的看法是要用时才往中国汇,否则会有什么危险吗?

Wenjer Leuschel wrote:

不要在中國存外匯,外匯應該留在國外,匯入中國的外匯應該立即兌換成人民幣,因為人民幣只有升值的可能,沒有貶值的可能;暫時性的升貶可能,長期來看卻只有升值的可能。


[Edited at 2007-01-12 14:41]


Hi Chance,

Just saw your post. Every december, euro becomes strong against dollar. One of the reasons is that is the time when europeans repatriate money back to Europe from the US. So they need to change their US dollars back to euro, which will cause the demand for euro to go up and therefore drive up the exchange rate. Euro has been traditionally strong in December. And it will probably remain strong against dollar for 2007. Some economists have been predicting that euro will reach a record high of 1 euro for 1.40 dollars some time in 2007. IF you want to follow this, keep an eye an European Central bank interest rate. As long as they keep their interest rate steady, better hike the interest rate, euro will stay strong.

As for putting money in the bank, China is the last place you should consider. the interest rate in China is extremely low and they only compound interest rate once a year. In the US and I believe it should be the same in Europe, bank compounds interest rate daily.


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xxxchance
French to Chinese
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TOPIC STARTER
小韩: Jan 13, 2007

谢谢这些链接,我会仔细看一遍。
Han Li wrote:

我才刚接触外币,也不知道怎么分析,只给你提供点链接,希望有用。


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xxxchance
French to Chinese
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
Tingting,久违! Jan 13, 2007

说来奇怪,我正好这几天想到过你,一是在查看PROZ有多少付费和不付费会员时,发现你的名字排在挺前面;二是这几天法国冬季Solde开始了,也让我想到你 不过我想你现在肯定更习惯在美国的工作和生活了。

非常感谢你这些很中肯的分析,我会坚持看看走势。你现在是否在学金融?怎么分析起来就像个专家似的。

希望常在论坛见到你

Tingting Huang wrote:

Hi Chance,

Just saw your post. Every december, euro becomes strong against dollar. One of the reasons is that is the time when europeans repatriate money back to Europe from the US. So they need to change their US dollars back to euro, which will cause the demand for euro to go up and therefore drive up the exchange rate. Euro has been traditionally strong in December. And it will probably remain strong against dollar for 2007. Some economists have been predicting that euro will reach a record high of 1 euro for 1.40 dollars some time in 2007. IF you want to follow this, keep an eye an European Central bank interest rate. As long as they keep their interest rate steady, better hike the interest rate, euro will stay strong.

As for putting money in the bank, China is the last place you should consider. the interest rate in China is extremely low and they only compound interest rate once a year. In the US and I believe it should be the same in Europe, bank compounds interest rate daily.


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tiandaijun
China
Local time: 11:44
English to Chinese
save your RMB in China. Jan 13, 2007

Hi, Chance,

You'd better save your RMB in China, and foreign currency in concern country as one friend above here said, this is only my personal experiences. For example, last year, I remitted my my foreign currency (US $)
at motherland, when backed China to check i lost a lot because of the the strong RMB rising.

Daijun


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isahuang
Local time: 23:44
English to Chinese
+ ...
various Jan 13, 2007

chance wrote:

说来奇怪,我正好这几天想到过你,一是在查看PROZ有多少付费和不付费会员时,发现你的名字排在挺前面;二是这几天法国冬季Solde开始了,也让我想到你 不过我想你现在肯定更习惯在美国的工作和生活了。

非常感谢你这些很中肯的分析,我会坚持看看走势。你现在是否在学金融?怎么分析起来就像个专家似的。

希望常在论坛见到你

Tingting Huang wrote:

Hi Chance,

Just saw your post. Every december, euro becomes strong against dollar. One of the reasons is that is the time when europeans repatriate money back to Europe from the US. So they need to change their US dollars back to euro, which will cause the demand for euro to go up and therefore drive up the exchange rate. Euro has been traditionally strong in December. And it will probably remain strong against dollar for 2007. Some economists have been predicting that euro will reach a record high of 1 euro for 1.40 dollars some time in 2007. IF you want to follow this, keep an eye an European Central bank interest rate. As long as they keep their interest rate steady, better hike the interest rate, euro will stay strong.

As for putting money in the bank, China is the last place you should consider. the interest rate in China is extremely low and they only compound interest rate once a year. In the US and I believe it should be the same in Europe, bank compounds interest rate daily.


Hi Chance,
谢谢有关Solde的信息。不过欧元越来越贵,去欧洲旅行购物现在对我来说可算是奢侈。还好,我可以在网上买 la redoute, 他们在美国有网上销售,去年我去法国的时候,跟法国的价钱对比了一下,发现美国的 la redoute价格同样的商品,比法国便宜差不多20%。让我心里觉得挺安慰的。

大概有一年多了吧,我一直都很忙。全职上班,晚上还要上graduate school, 整个人忙得团团转。我不是在学金融,但有金融课,所以也算略知一二,专家实在是不敢当。我前些日子给我老妈寄了一点钱,算是孝敬一下老人家,我妈还挺有经济头脑,天天上网看外汇牌价,等到美金稍微高点的时候才去换。我也佩服我老妈了,其实钱也不多,一分两分的浮动,根本没什么差别,可我妈就是那么辛苦地盯了差不多两个星期的外汇市场。精神可嘉。

人在国外总是要多想一些钱生钱的方法。国外生活实在贵,不比国内。不过国外投资机会也多。各种基金,还有股票,而且市场也按规则运行,不像国内金融市场扑朔迷离,让人摸不着底。


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xxxchance
French to Chinese
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
Tingting, Jan 14, 2007

说实话,我还是佩服你这样不停勤奋努力的人,也很高兴你还想着法国服装!

从物价讲,美国要比法国好多了,你说的la redoute的那20%应该就是19.6%的TVA部分。

我姐也有你妈那份精神,我也佩服她

希望你在美国一切顺利

Tingting Huang wrote:

Hi Chance,
谢谢有关Solde的信息。不过欧元越来越贵,去欧洲旅行购物现在对我来说可算是奢侈。还好,我可以在网上买 , 他们在美国有网上销售,去年我去法国的时候,跟法国的价钱对比了一下,发现美国的 la redoute价格同样的商品,比法国便宜差不多20%。让我心里觉得挺安慰的。

大概有一年多了吧,我一直都很忙。全职上班,晚上还要上graduate school, 整个人忙得团团转。我不是在学金融,但有金融课,所以也算略知一二,专家实在是不敢当。我前些日子给我老妈寄了一点钱,算是孝敬一下老人家,我妈还挺有经济头脑,天天上网看外汇牌价,等到美金稍微高点的时候才去换。我也佩服我老妈了,其实钱也不多,一分两分的浮动,根本没什么差别,可我妈就是那么辛苦地盯了差不多两个星期的外汇市场。精神可嘉。

人在国外总是要多想一些钱生钱的方法。国外生活实在贵,不比国内。不过国外投资机会也多。各种基金,还有股票,而且市场也按规则运行,不像国内金融市场扑朔迷离,让人摸不着底。


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xxxchance
French to Chinese
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Tingting, Apr 17, 2007

这几天欧元与人民币的汇率涨到104以上,你知道其原因以及是否会持续吗?

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isahuang
Local time: 23:44
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猜想 Apr 17, 2007

chance wrote:

这几天欧元与人民币的汇率涨到104以上,你知道其原因以及是否会持续吗?


我不太留意欧元与人民币的汇率,不过,这几天的情况可能是跟欧洲央行很快要升基准利率有关。


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xxxchance
French to Chinese
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TOPIC STARTER
欧洲央行决定升基准利率已经有一段时间了 Apr 17, 2007

Tingting Huang wrote:

这几天的情况可能是跟欧洲央行很快要升基准利率有关。


这里有人认为欧元没有跟着美元降,不利于欧洲经济发展;另一些人认为欧元坚挺是欧洲比美国经济稳定的结果。你们那里怎样看?


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