我们这里有外汇市场专家吗？(M+M+M！)

wherestip wrote:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/27/news/economy/bernanke_house/index.htm?cnn=yes

Tingting Huang wrote:

Euro reached a new high of 1.51

wherestip wrote:
Strong Euro, Weak U.S. Dollar


I see what you're saying. Yikes!

http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/EUR/graph120.html

chance wrote:

你们央行往市场大量注入现金以缓解经济危机，但从长远看，只能使形势更加恶化。

I am looking for, I'm afraid, not a very comfortable time for consumers. I expect that some of them are going to have to start saving more money, which they haven't done in the past because they've always had easy credit, they've always been able to spend, and now they're not going to be able to get as much credit. They're not going to be able to borrow against their homes because of the decline in the equity of their homes.

And so this is going to -- they're facing a retrenchment, because they're spending more on their gas, they're spending more for food, and their incomes are not going up, and they're going to lose some jobs. So we're looking at a classic recession, and consumers are going to have to retrench.

And, you know, Judy, over the long run -- if you look at where America is in the world, relatively speaking, we are getting poorer, because we've been a debtor nation for so long. And the dollar going down means that internationally we are getting to be a poorer country, and we are not doing as well as we did in the past.

This is going to be a hard thing for Americans to face.

- Jane Bryant Quinn

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_48/b4060001.htm

Will the consumer crunch spread to the rest of the economy? Conventional wisdom is that consumer spending makes up 70% of gross domestic product. While technically true, that figure is deceptive, because so much of what Americans buy these days is made overseas. Compared with the early 1980s, which was the last time consumers cut back, much more of what Americans buy is made abroad. Today, imports of consumer goods and autos run about $740 billion a year. That's fully one-third of consumer spending on goods outside of food and energy. As a result, most of the spending cutbacks won't cost Americans their factory jobs—those factory jobs have mostly fled offshore anyway. Workshop China, in contrast, will get hurt.

http://www.getrichslick.com/2007/11/21/whats-after-a-consumer-economy/

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/01/20030107-5.html

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of our economy. It has been the driving force of our recovery. Yet there are warning signs I won't ignore, and I hope the Congress doesn't ignore either. Many Americans live in constant and increasing personal debt, with credit card bills so heavy they often cannot pay much more than the monthly minimum. Millions of citizens spend their entire adult lives living paycheck-to-paycheck, never getting a chance to save for their children's education or their own retirement. Americans today are paying about a third of their income in taxes. All of this puts pressure on family budget, and therefore clouds our economic future.

wherestip wrote:
As a result, most of the spending cutbacks won't cost Americans their factory jobs—those factory jobs have mostly fled offshore anyway. Workshop China, in contrast, will get hurt.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of our economy. It has been the driving force of our recovery. Yet there are warning signs I won't ignore, and I hope the Congress doesn't ignore either. Many Americans live in constant and increasing personal debt, with credit card bills so heavy they often cannot pay much more than the monthly minimum. Millions of citizens spend their entire adult lives living paycheck-to-paycheck, never getting a chance to save for their children's education or their own retirement. Americans today are paying about a third of their income in taxes. All of this puts pressure on family budget, and therefore clouds our economic future.

What happens if citizens of society decide that they’d rather live frugally without all those fancy ipods, BMWs, McMansions, Wii’s and other consumer goods.

One political party has been touting an “infrastructure economy” circa 1930s Roosevelt’s public works projects to get America out of the Great Depression.

The other party is fixated on missile defense shields and other military expenditures to fight off 7th century barbarians with sticks and stones living in caves and tents.

I have serious doubts about either successfully replacing the consumer economy. The only thing I could come up with that may potentially replace the American consumer is a foreign consumer. I know countries like China & Brazil are hungry for resources, goods and services but will it be enough?