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Thread poster: chance (X)
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有道理 Sep 18, 2008

懂得玩经济的人才是造成经济危机的根源,不懂经济的人,恐怕连造成经济危机的本事都没有。

现在的世界经济就是以美式金融体制为主导的,结果就在眼前,事实远胜于雄辩。

isahuang wrote:
This makes no economic sense at all.
chance wrote:

如果说大部分美国人是崇尚道德的,那么美国在次贷危机面前,采取的却是转嫁危机的自利做法,美联储通过持续下调利率以及向金融市场注入海量流动性,导致政策性美元贬值,引发全球特别是持有大量美国债权国家的通胀;并通过全球金融市场,将次贷危机的风险传导全球,迫使全球为美国危机埋单,这就是美国的“道德”形象,更有人大言不惭:赚全世界人民的钱!



Whoever thinks this way understands nothing about economics.


[Edited at 2008-09-18 14:24]


 
chance (X)
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我们这里还没有人这样看 Sep 18, 2008

不过我会往这个方面注意,再考虑。

我到此打住了,大家就满怀信心地建设各自相信和期望的社会吧

wherestip wrote:

wherestip wrote:


资本主义制度当然有很多弊病. 但我本人认为这次金融市场危机是 9/11 事件七、八年来的的连锁反应. 我本人觉得世界上的很多事不能孤立地去看, 历史背景是很重要的. 再者我对 conspiracy theories 很少信服.



Take a look at a chart of the Fed Funds Rate, and you'll understand what I mean by the financial crisis being a continuation of 9/11.

http://www.moneycafe.com/library/fedfunds.htm

http://www.proz.com/forum/chinese/63298-我们这里有外汇市场专家吗?m+m+m!-page12.html#641060



 
wherestip
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Trading Sep 19, 2008

isahuang wrote:

btw, I picked some bargains today, well I hope they are bargains not falling knives. I have managed to keep my head above water so far, hope my good luck continues.



What timing! Now you can afford to buy more laptops even without AXP's reimbursement.

I'm too chicken to do anything with this kind of volatility going on.


 
chance (X)
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La vérité sur la crise financière Sep 19, 2008

George Soros是一个很有意思的connaisseur,敢玩能赢,看透了,还敢说真话,他的剖析我比较信,这几天正好在巴黎。

http://www.amazon.fr/vérité-sur-crise-financière/dp/2207260887/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1221838109&sr=8-1


 
isahuang
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They are indeed bargains. Sep 19, 2008

wherestip wrote:

isahuang wrote:

btw, I picked some bargains today, well I hope they are bargains not falling knives. I have managed to keep my head above water so far, hope my good luck continues.



What timing! Now you can afford to buy more laptops even without AXP's reimbursement.

I'm too chicken to do anything with this kind of volatility going on.



But the market seems going crazy now, a lot of short covering going on. Well when you cannot sell, what can you do? you have to buy. I will stay put and wait for the next drop and I am sure its not over.


 
wherestip
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social conscience Sep 20, 2008

chance wrote:

George Soros是一个很有意思的connaisseur,敢玩能赢,看透了,还敢说真话,他的剖析我比较信,这几天正好在巴黎。



George Soros 当然有很多值得羡慕的优点.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros


... 但他也不是什么天使就是了. 看看他在 1997 年干的一些事 - 有人称他只手引发了亚洲太平洋地区的金融市场危机。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_financial_crisis



The foreign ministers of the 10 ASEAN countries believed that the well co-ordinated manipulation of currencies was a deliberate attempt to destabilize the ASEAN economies. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused George Soros of ruining Malaysia's economy with "massive currency speculation." (Soros appeared to have had his bets in against the Asian currency devaluations, incurring a loss when the crisis hit.) At the 30th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting held in Subang Jaya, Malaysia, they issued a joint declaration on 25 July 1997 expressing serious concern and called for further intensification of ASEAN's cooperation to safeguard and promote ASEAN's interest in this regard.[11] Coincidentally, on that same day, the central bankers of most of the affected countries were at the EMEAP (Executive Meeting of East Asia Pacific) meeting in Shanghai, and they failed to make the 'New Arrangement to Borrow' operational. A year earlier, the finance ministers of these same countries had attended the 3rd APEC finance ministers meeting in Kyoto, Japan on 17 March 1996, and according to that joint declaration, they had been unable to double the amounts available under the 'General Agreement to Borrow' and the 'Emergency Finance Mechanism'. As such, the crisis could be seen as the failure to adequately build capacity in time to prevent currency manipulation. This hypothesis enjoyed little support among economists, however, who argue that no single investor could have had enough impact on the market to successfully manipulate the currencies' values. In addition, the level of organization necessary to coordinate a massive exodus of investors from Southeast Asian currencies in order to manipulate their values rendered this possibility remote.

...

The economic crisis also led to political upheaval, most notably culminating in the resignations of President Suharto in Indonesia and Prime Minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh in Thailand. There was a general rise in anti-Western sentiment, with George Soros and the IMF in particular singled out as targets of criticisms. Heavy U.S. investment in Thailand ended, replaced by mostly European investment, though Japanese investment was sustained. Islamic and other separatist movements intensified in Southeast Asia as central authorities weakened.[27]




http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/etc/cron.html


靠倒股票起家的著名人物中, 我本人比较佩服 Warren Buffett. 尤其是他在道德观念方面上的所作所为.



[Edited at 2008-09-20 12:41]


 
isahuang
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我昨天就想发贴说Soros与亚洲经济风暴的关系,但一直没时间, Sep 20, 2008

wherestip wrote:

chance wrote:

George Soros是一个很有意思的connaisseur,敢玩能赢,看透了,还敢说真话,他的剖析我比较信,这几天正好在巴黎。



George Soros 当然有很多值得羡慕的优点.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros


... 但他也不是什么天使就是了. 看看他在 1997 年干的一些事 - 有人称他只手引发了亚洲太平洋地区的金融市场危机。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_financial_crisis



The foreign ministers of the 10 ASEAN countries believed that the well co-ordinated manipulation of currencies was a deliberate attempt to destabilize the ASEAN economies. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused George Soros of ruining Malaysia's economy with "massive currency speculation." (Soros appeared to have had his bets in against the Asian currency devaluations, incurring a loss when the crisis hit.) At the 30th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting held in Subang Jaya, Malaysia, they issued a joint declaration on 25 July 1997 expressing serious concern and called for further intensification of ASEAN's cooperation to safeguard and promote ASEAN's interest in this regard.[11] Coincidentally, on that same day, the central bankers of most of the affected countries were at the EMEAP (Executive Meeting of East Asia Pacific) meeting in Shanghai, and they failed to make the 'New Arrangement to Borrow' operational. A year earlier, the finance ministers of these same countries had attended the 3rd APEC finance ministers meeting in Kyoto, Japan on 17 March 1996, and according to that joint declaration, they had been unable to double the amounts available under the 'General Agreement to Borrow' and the 'Emergency Finance Mechanism'. As such, the crisis could be seen as the failure to adequately build capacity in time to prevent currency manipulation. This hypothesis enjoyed little support among economists, however, who argue that no single investor could have had enough impact on the market to successfully manipulate the currencies' values. In addition, the level of organization necessary to coordinate a massive exodus of investors from Southeast Asian currencies in order to manipulate their values rendered this possibility remote.

...

The economic crisis also led to political upheaval, most notably culminating in the resignations of President Suharto in Indonesia and Prime Minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh in Thailand. There was a general rise in anti-Western sentiment, with George Soros and the IMF in particular singled out as targets of criticisms. Heavy U.S. investment in Thailand ended, replaced by mostly European investment, though Japanese investment was sustained. Islamic and other separatist movements intensified in Southeast Asia as central authorities weakened.[27]




http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/crash/etc/cron.html


靠倒股票起家的著名人物中, 我本人比较佩服 Warren Buffett. 尤其是他在道德观念方面上的所作所为.



[Edited at 2008-09-20 12:41]


你知道我在忙什么。:D Steve, you beat me to that. I didn't read the link, but I knew what happened then. George Soros made a huge fortune by betting against those Asian currencies. He didn't complain about free market or regulations then. Malaysian Prime Minister then even blamed him for the Asian Financial crisis. Well, I don't think its fair to blame him for the Financial crisis. When you see something is going wrong, there will always be smart people out there to profit on it. Like the current situation, when irrational exuberance takes over, most people lose their mind. What can you do? Like one of the employees at Lehman said, at the end of the party, everybody decided to come out naked. what can you do? Its greed and "irrational exuberance" that put us in this crisis. its part of human nature.

oh, btw, I read somewhere Soros this time didn't do too well in his investment in Lehman Brothers.



[Edited at 2008-09-20 13:09]



[Edited at 2008-09-20 13:13]


 
chance (X)
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Steve, Sep 20, 2008

他的发家史我略知一二,所以才说他是一个很有意思的connaisseur,我的意思是:他算是看透了现在的金融体制,才大捞了几把......也许现在意识到年轻时的问题,想改邪归正立牌坊了 他对现在金融体制的问题还是很清楚的,得了好就卖乖,总比那些得了好不卖乖,企图维护体制而继续大发其财的人好一点点。

像我们这样既没地位也没钱,所以没有发言权也不能改变社会的,也得争取像他那样发一发,这样就会有发言权再去改进社会了

[Edited at 2008-09-20 14:26]


 
Wenjer Leuschel (X)
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D'accord! Sep 20, 2008

chance wrote:

像我们这样既没地位也没钱,所以没有发言权也不能改变社会的,也得争取像他那样发一发,这样就会有发言权再去改进社会了


D'accord ! C'est comme ça.


 
chance (X)
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赊帐生活 Sep 23, 2008

我对美国人赊帐生活的习惯印象挺深,这次危机后,这种习惯是否会有所改变呢?

 
Wenjer Leuschel (X)
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另类的生活哲学 Sep 23, 2008

chance wrote:

我对美国人赊帐生活的习惯印象挺深,这次危机后,这种习惯是否会有所改变呢?


chance,

有人认为,不赊账怎么确定一个人的债信呢?所以赊账并非不好,要看的是还债的方式和能力。抱持这种哲学的人,倾向于“欠债是大爷”的态度。

这次的危机里,美国政府算是采取了明快的处理。退税给人民,立刻就解决了通货紧缩的压力。物价上涨的问题也同样采取有效的手段,政府接收倒闭的企业和金融机构,至少撑住股市不崩盘。

其实,所有的政府会采取的办法都属于治标不治本的办法,撑过当前的危机就是。而且,人民的记忆也是相当脆弱的,他们很快会忘记教训,也不再深入检讨造成危机的原因,当然更不可能改变人的天性。罗马帝国不是一天就崩解的;我们可以断定,亚美利坚合众国也不会明天就改变的。

- Wenjer


 
isahuang
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That's true. Sep 23, 2008

chance wrote:

我对美国人赊帐生活的习惯印象挺深,这次危机后,这种习惯是否会有所改变呢?


You cannot spend more than what you bring in. this is a simple equation. But unfortunately, a lot of Americans don't understand this. The subprime mess hit a lot of people here, but I don't see many Chinese affected by it. I might be wrong.


 
chance (X)
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确实需要稳住市场,稳住人心 Sep 23, 2008

但是那7000亿从哪里来?能否与如何合理使用?却是个非常复杂的问题。

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3662065,00.html

Wenjer Leuschel wrote:
这次的危机里,美国政府算是采取了明快的处理。退税给人民,立刻就解决了通货紧缩的压力。物价上涨的问题也同样采取有效的手段,政府接收倒闭的企业和金融机构,至少撑住股市不崩盘。


[Edited at 2008-09-24 07:11]


 
wherestip
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"河蟹" 程度 Sep 29, 2008

Yueyin,

Could you do me a favor and see if you could access this CBS 60 minutes link from where you are without tunneling through different proxy servers? I'm curious as to what kind of information access is permitted over there. TIA...
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Yueyin,

Could you do me a favor and see if you could access this CBS 60 minutes link from where you are without tunneling through different proxy servers? I'm curious as to what kind of information access is permitted over there. TIA

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/28/60minutes/main4483612.shtml

It's really nothing but Henry Paulson being interviewed about the $700 billion Wall Street bailout.

Remember my going on and on about how unfair CEO compensation was the last time we talked? That was more than 2 months ago. Sometimes I amaze myself at some of the premonitions I have.
Collapse


 
ysun
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website access Sep 29, 2008

Steve,

Yes, I can access this CBS 60 minutes link from where I am right now (Beijing).


 
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