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bond yield to forward earnings yield ratio

German translation: Verhältnis zwischen Anleiherendite und prognostizierter Gewinnrendite


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GLOSSARY ENTRY (DERIVED FROM QUESTION BELOW)
English term or phrase:bond yield to forward earnings yield ratio
German translation:Verhältnis zwischen Anleiherendite und prognostizierter Gewinnrendite
Entered by: Beate Lutzebaeck
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12:51 Sep 8, 2002
English to German translations [PRO]
Bus/Financial - Investment / Securities / Asset management
English term or phrase: bond yield to forward earnings yield ratio
This comes up in the quarterly report of an asset management company; I've tentatively translated this bit as: das Verhältnis von Anleiherendite zu prognostizierter Gewinnrendite.

"Many analysts argue that while equities still look a little expensive using absolute valuation indicators such as the price earnings ratio, relative valuation indicators are favourable. One such measure that is often wheeled out is the ***bond yield to forward earnings yield ratio***, a comparison of the current government bond yield with the earning yield in one or two years time. We have serious problems with this measure. First, as economists as a group have been notoriously poor at predicating economic growth rates one year ahead how can we have confidence in earnings forecasts which are driven by economic growth predictions? Second, and more fundamentally, if analysts use forward earnings in their valuation ratios then they should also use forward bond yield estimates. Bond yields have moved down as growth expectations have fallen. If economic activity and profits do rebound then it would be a safe bet that bond yields would rise. Finally, it is debatable whether the zero risk government bond is the appropriate benchmark for high risk equities anyway. It can be argued that a typical BAA corporate bond should be used instead of the government bond. Using the corporate bond in the earnings yield ratio makes equities look much more expensive."

Please only answers from people with relevant experience - thank you!
Beate Lutzebaeck
Local time: 16:09
Verhältnis zwischen Anleiherendite und zukünftiger Gewinnrendite
Explanation:
Hoffe, das hilft. Statt "zukünftiger" könnte man auch "prognostizierter" verwenden
Selected response from:

Andy Lemminger
Canada
Local time: 00:09
Grading comment
Das hilft in der Tat - danke an alle!
4 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



Summary of answers provided
4 +4Verhältnis zwischen Anleiherendite und zukünftiger Gewinnrendite
Andy Lemminger
5Rentenrendite zu erwarteter Gewinnrendite
Eva Blanar
5Verhältnis der Rendite von Staatsanleihen zur künftigen Anleiherendite
Hans G. Liepert


  

Answers


59 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 5/5
Verhältnis der Rendite von Staatsanleihen zur künftigen Anleiherendite


Explanation:
Es handelt sich hier wohl um das Verhältnis der Rendite von Staatsanleihen (die ja fixiert ist) zur Rendite sonstiger Anleihen (Industrieanleihen usw). Die Staatsanleihe wird in jedem Fall mit 100% Zins/Tilgung bedient (Operettenstaaten ausgenommen), während Industrieanleihen doch stark vom Markt abhängig sind (was ist eine ENRON-Anleihe heute wert? was war sie vor 2 Jahren wert)

Hans G. Liepert
Switzerland
Local time: 08:09
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in GermanGerman
PRO pts in category: 908
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1 hr   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): +4
Verhältnis zwischen Anleiherendite und zukünftiger Gewinnrendite


Explanation:
Hoffe, das hilft. Statt "zukünftiger" könnte man auch "prognostizierter" verwenden

Andy Lemminger
Canada
Local time: 00:09
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in GermanGerman
PRO pts in category: 80
Grading comment
Das hilft in der Tat - danke an alle!

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  Manuela Remmel
3 mins

agree  Ralf Lemster: "prognostizierter" ist besser
2 hrs

agree  Annette Scheler
16 hrs

agree  Monika Martens
17 hrs
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2 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 5/5
Rentenrendite zu erwarteter Gewinnrendite


Explanation:
In my opinion, you could basically drop the 'forward' (=expected) part of it. The earnings yield is the inverse of the PER (price / earnings ratio) and is usually calculated as the market price divided by the last 12 months' earnings, but actually, the market price already reflects the expectations of the market. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use the expected earnings for the calculations, but believe me, these may be pretty much misleading!

At any rate, investors put their monies into certain stocks because of the expected achievable return there, and for that purpose, several models exist.

This question is not too simple, some of the considerations are explained in the next fragment:
<<An assumption underlying the standard Fed model is that the expected growth rate of earnings equals the risk premium on stocks. An implication of this is that the forward earnings yield on the S&P 500 mimics the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which is taken as a proxy for the discount rate of future earnings. Thus, moves in the 10-year Treasury yield will often force moves in stock prices to bring earnings yields into alignment. This relationship creates a simple, powerful metric to examine the valuation of the S&P 500. The Fed model has an excellent track record and currently implies that S&P 500 is roughly 15% overvalued. (...)
We created a new model for Canada that includes the benchmark Government of Canada ten-year bond yield and the slope of the yield curve between three-month treasury bill rates and 10-year bond yields. This model fits much better.>>

I would use Rentenrendite instead of Anleiherendite, because this is a comparison of 'fixed income' (from debt instruments) to equity-based income.

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Note added at 2002-09-08 15:33:36 (GMT)
--------------------------------------------------

It is quite usual to speak just about Rentenrendite versus Gewinnrendite, adding, if necessary to emphasise, in brackets:\"auf Basis der erwarteten Gewinne für... Monaten / Jahren\".


    Reference: http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=4665
Eva Blanar
Hungary
Local time: 08:09
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in HungarianHungarian
PRO pts in category: 9

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
neutral  Hans G. Liepert: Gewinne und Renditen sind 2 Paar Stiefel und was bedeutet Gewinnrendite? Rendite bezieht sich immer auf ein eingesetztes Kapital, stellt also eine Verzinsung dar. Wie soll sich Gewinn verzinsen?
1 hr
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