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INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
The information set forth below is mainly about the PRC banking sector. It is derived from official sources. While our Directors have exercised reasonable care in compiling and reproducing the information, it has not been independently verified by the Company, the Directors, the Underwriters or any of our or their respective affiliates or advisers. This information may not be consistent with other information compiled within or outside the PRC. In particular (but without limitation), a number of overseas market observers have estimated that the level of the non-performing loans in the PRC banking system may be considerably higher than the figures cited herein, and if such estimates are true, the level of the PRC banking system’s assets and some of the other related figures included in this section may be overstated.
OVERVIEW
The PRC banking market is one of the fastest growing banking markets in the world. According to the Almanac of China’s Finance and Banking, from 1999 to 2004, total Renminbi deposits received by financial institutions in the PRC increased 121.1%, from RMB10,878 billion to RMB24,053 billion, and total Renminbi loans provided by financial institutions in the PRC increased 89.2%, from RMB9,373 billion to RMB17,736 billion. The following table sets forth the total Renminbi loans, total Renminbi deposits and individual savings deposits in the PRC from 1999 to 2004:
XXX
Source: The People’s Bank of China
The expansion of the PRC banking market has benefited primarily from the underlying economic growth and the resulting wealth creation and accumulation since the start of the PRC’s economic modernization in 1978. The following table sets forth GDP and GDP per capita in the PRC from 1999
to 2003:
XXX
DOMESTIC PARTICIPANTS IN THE PRC BANKING SECTOR
The PRC banking sector is comprised of wholly state-owned banks, joint stock commercial banks, policy banks, urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, urban credit cooperatives, rural credit cooperatives and foreign-invested financial institutions. The table below sets forth the number and market share of each type of banking institution as of December 31, 2003.
Number Market share based on total assets
Big Four (1) . . . . . . . . . . . ..
Joint stock commercial banks (2) . . . .
Policy banks . . . . . . . .
Urban commercial banks . . . .
Rural commercial banks . . .
Urban credit cooperatives . . . .
Rural credit cooperatives . . .
China Post Savings . . . . . . .
Foreign-invested financial institutions . . . .
Source: Almanac of China’s Finance and Banking and the People’s Bank of China.
(1) Includes Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and China Construction Bank.
(2) Includes Bank of Communications, Citic Industrial Bank, China Everbright Bank, Hua Xia Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Guangdong Development Bank, Shenzhen Development Bank, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank.
Big Four
The big four commercial banks, namely, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, or ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, or ABC, Bank of China, or BOC, and China Construction Bank, or CCB (together, the "Big Four") have traditionally dominated the PRC banking industry. As of December 31, 2004, according to the PBOC, they accounted for 53.6% of total assets of financial institutions in the
PRC.
Joint Stock Commercial Banks
According to the CBRC, as of December 31, 2004, there were 12 joint stock commercial banks in the PRC with a nationwide banking license. As of the same date, we were the largest among these banks in terms of total assets. Joint stock commercial banks generally have diversified shareholders, including, among others, local government entities and state-owned enterprises. Established mostly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, these joint stock commercial banks have gradually increased their collective market share while the market share of the Big Four has gradually decreased. As of December 31, 2004, according to the CBRC, they accounted for approximately 14.9% of total assets of financial institutions in the PRC.
Policy Banks
Three policy banks, China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank of China and Agricultural Development Bank of China, which were established to allow the Big Four to concentrate on commercial lending, are principally mandated to finance government-sponsored projects.
Other Domestic Banking Institutions
Other domestic PRC financial institutions engaged in commercial banking business include urban commercial banks, rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, urban credit cooperatives and rural credit cooperatives.
PRC BANKING SECTOR REFORM
Reforming the banking sector is one of the major challenges of economic reform undertaken by the PRC government. These reforms have focused primarily on the improvement of the legal and regulatory framework; the enhancement of asset quality and the capital base; and the liberalization of interest rates.
Improvement of the legal and regulatory framework
The steps taken by the PRC government to improve the legal and regulatory framework include:
--the establishment of an independent central banking system, originally with the PBOC as both the central bank and the banking supervisory authority;
--the establishment of the CBRC in April 2003 to take over the banking supervisory and regulatory functions of the PBOC; and
--the implementation of new corporate governance and management standards across all PRC financial institutions. See the section headed "Supervision and Regulation".
Improvement of asset quality and enhancement of capital base
The PRC banking sector has been historically burdened with large portfolios of non-performing loans. According to the CBRC, outstanding non-performing loans at the Big Four, policy banks and joint stock commercial banks amounted to approximately RMB1.7 trillion at the end of 2004, representing 13.2% of the total loans in the PRC. The following table sets forth certain information regarding the non-performing loans of state-owned and joint stock commercial banks as of the date indicated:
Non-performing loans by category:
Substandard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Doubtful . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Non-performing loans by types of banks:
Big Four . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Joint stock commercial banks (1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Source: China Banking Regulatory Commission
(1) Includes Bank of Communications, Citic Industrial Bank, China Everbright Bank, Hua Xia Bank, Minsheng Bank, Guangdong Development Bank, Shenzhen Development Bank, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Evergrowing Bank.
Due to the large amount of non-performing loans in the PRC banking industry, the PRC government has taken various measures to resolve the non-performing loan problem and improve the capital adequacy levels of PRC banks. In 1999, the PRC government established four asset management companies to assume and resolve the non-performing loans transferred from the Big Four. In 1999, the Big Four transferred an aggregate of RMB1.4 trillion in assets to the four asset management companies. In 2004, CCB, BOC and our Company similarly transferred over RMB330 billion of non-performing loans to Cinda. In an effort to allow banks as well as regulators to better monitor bank asset quality in accordance with international practice, a five-category classification system was formally implemented in 2002.
In conjunction with the transfer of these non-performing loans, regulators also employed capital injection measures to enhance the capital base of commercial banks. In 1998, a total of RMB270 billion was injected into the Big Four. In 2004, another US$45 billion was injected into BOC and CCB for their recapitalization. In 2004, our Company was the recipient of a RMB18 billion capital injection. For details, see the section headed "Our Reorganization and Restructuring - Financial Restructuring".
Interest Rate Reform
PRC commercial banks set the interest rates of their Renminbi deposits and loans in accordance with the benchmark rates published and modified by the PBOC from time to time. However, the PRC government has taken gradual measures to liberalize interest rates by widening the band within which commercial banks may set their Renminbi lending rates around the benchmark rates.
In January 1987, the PBOC for the first time allowed PRC commercial banks to set the interest rates for Renminbi-denominated lending within a range that is 10% lower to 20% higher than the PBOC benchmark rate. After incremental changes in the intervening years, on January 1, 2004, the PBOC further extended the upper limit of Renminbi-denominated lending rates, except for mortgages and policy loans, to no higher than 70% of the benchmark rate. Subsequently, on October 29, 2004, the PBOC removed the upper limit for Renminbi-denominated lending rates while retaining the lower limit for such rates. Effective on the same date, all deposit-taking institutions are now allowed to decrease (but not increase) Renminbi-denominated deposit rates to below the corresponding PBOC benchmark rates. See the section headed "Supervision and Regulation" for further details.
FOREIGN COMPETITION IN THE PRC BANKING SECTOR
Foreign financial institutions can conduct banking business in the PRC by establishing branches in the PRC, forming joint venture financial institutions with PRC financial institutions, or establishing wholly foreign-owned financial institutions. According to the Almanac of China’s Finance and Banking, as of December 31, 2003, the PRC government had given its approval to 64 foreign banks to open 169 branches and sub-branches and to set up 15 wholly foreign-owned commercial banks, joint venture commercial banks and finance companies in the PRC. As of December 31, 2003, according to the PBOC, foreign-invested financial institutions accounted for 1.5% of the total assets of financial institutions in the PRC.
PRC laws and regulations also permit foreign financial institutions to purchase or subscribe for limited equity interests in PRC banks. Currently, a foreign financial institution can purchase or subscribe for up to 20% of the equity interest in a PRC bank. HSBC, for example, purchased a 19.90% stake in our Company in August 2004.
Although the scale of foreign banks’ activities in the PRC remains limited by regulatory constraints, the PRC banking sector has been gradually opening to foreign entities. Upon the PRC’s entry into the WTO, foreign banks were permitted to offer foreign currency-denominated products and services in the PRC without any geographic or client restrictions. Starting December 11, 2004, foreign banks have been permitted to offer Renminbi-denominated services and products to PRC enterprises in 18 major cities including, among others, Beijing and Shanghai. At the end of 2006, the PRC banking sector will be fully opened to foreign banks without any restrictions on business scope or geography. As a result, competition in the PRC banking sector from foreign banks is expected to intensify.
In addition, the Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement, a free trade agreement commonly known as the CEPA, became effective on January 1, 2004. The CEPA enables smaller Hong Kong banks to enter the PRC banking sector, which we expect will increase the competition in the PRC banking industry. For example, under the CEPA, commercial banks incorporated in Hong Kong with US$6 billion or more in total assets are qualified to apply for the establishment of branches in the PRC. By comparison, under the relevant PBOC and CBRC regulations, commercial banks incorporated in other jurisdictions must have US$20 billion or more in total assets to be qualified to apply for the establishment of branches.
GROWTH IN RETAIL BANKING
Although corporate banking continues to be the main business for most PRC commercial banks, retail banking products and services have also grown significantly. For example, according to the PBOC, consumer loans outstanding rose from RMB17.2 billion at the end of 1998 to RMB1,573.3 billion at the end of 2003, representing 9.9% of total loans outstanding and 13.5% of GDP. However, the level of consumer lending in the PRC is still significantly below that in other countries.
Bank Cards
While bank card penetration in the PRC remains low in comparison to developed countries, the bank card business experienced rapid growth in recent years. The total cards outstanding increased from 383 million as of December 31, 2001 to 762 million as of December 31, 2004, according to the PBOC. The growth has also been accompanied by an expansion of the electronic banking terminal network.
Debit cards have been the primary type of bank card in the PRC. As of December 31, 2004, debit cards outstanding amounted to 663 million. As of the same date, there were 98 million credit cards issued. The development of the credit card market has so far been limited by a variety of reasons, including strict regulation on licensing, underdevelopment of a national payment infrastructure and the absence of a nationwide consumer credit information system. However, with an increasing number of licences for banks to engage in credit card business being issued, the development of China UnionPay and the establishment of a national personal credit database as promoted by the PBOC, the credit card industry is expected to grow significantly in the future.
Residential Mortgages
Demand for housing in the PRC increased significantly in the 1990s when the PRC government began its housing reform by eliminating housing benefits for employees of state-owned enterprises and civil servants. As of December 31, 2004, the total outstanding balance of residential mortgages reached RMB1.6 trillion, approximately 38 times the balance at the end of 1998. Mortgage lending accounts for a majority of consumer lending by PRC banks. The residential mortgage market has, as a result, become a significant factor for sustained economic growth in the PRC. Although the PRC government has adopted measures to tighten its policies on lending to the real estate industry starting in 2003, residential mortgage loans have continued to grow at a rapid pace. XXX | Translation - Chinese
行业概况
下列资料主要与中国银行业相关。该等资料均来自官方渠道，尽管本银行董事在编撰及重整此等资料时已合理审慎地处理，但未经本银行、董事、承销商或本银行或承销商各自的联属机构或顾问独立核实。此等资料可能与中国国内和国外所编制的其它资料不一致。尤其（但不限于）一些海外市场观察员估计中国的银行系统的不良贷款水平可能比本文引用的数字要高得多。如果该等估计属实，本节所载的中国银行系统的资产水平及其它一些相关资料便可能被高估。
概述
中国的银行市场是全球增长最快的银行市场之一。根据《中国金融年鉴》的资料，从1999年到2004年，存入中国金融机构的人民币总存款从人民币108,780亿元增至人民币240,530亿元，增长了121.1%，而中国金融机构提供的人民币总贷款则从人民币93,730亿元增至人民币177,360亿元，增长了89.2%。下表载列从1999年到2004年的中国总人民币贷款、总人民币存款及个人储蓄存款情况：
XXX
中国的银行市场增长主要受惠于经济增长和中国自1978年起推行经济现代化所创造及积累的财富。下表载列中国由1999年到2003年的国内生产总值和人均国内生产总值：
XXX
中国银行业的国内参与者
中国的银行业包括全资国有银行、股份制商业银行、政策性银行、城市商业银行、农村商业银行、农村信用合作银行、城市信用合作社、农村信用合作社及外资金融机构。下表载列截至2003年12月31日各类银行业金融机构的数目及市场份额。
四大银行(1) . . . . . . .
股份制商业银行(2) . . . . . . . . .
政策性银行 . . . . . . . . . .
城市商业银行 . . . . . . . . .
农村商业银行 . . . . . . . . .
城市信用合作社 . . . . . . . .
农村信用合作社 . . . . . . .
中国邮政储蓄 . . . . . .
外资金融机构 . .
资料来源：《中国金融年鉴》及中国人民银行。
(1) 包括中国工商银行、中国农业银行、中国银行及中国建设银行。
(2) 包括交通银行、中信实业银行、中国光大银行、华夏银行、中国民生银行、广东发展银行、深圳发展银行、招商银行、兴业银行及上海浦东发展银行。
四大银行
四大商业银行，即中国工商银行、中国农业银行、中国银行及中国建设银行（统称「四大银行」），传统上在中国银行业占支配地位。根据中国人民银行的资料，截至2004年12月31日，上述四大银行占中国金融机构的总资产的53.6%。
股份制商业银行
根据中国银监会的资料，截至2004年12月31日，中国境内共有12间持有全国性银行执照的股份制商业银行。截至同一日期，就总资产规模而言，本银行是这些银行中最大的。一般而言，股份制商业银行的股东架构各不相同，包括（但不限于）当地政府实体及国有企业。这些股份制商业银行大多数是在八十年代后期和九十年代初期组建，整体市场份额逐年增加，而四大银行的市场份额逐年下降。根据中国银监会的资料，截至2004年12月31日，这些银行占中国金融机构总资产约14.9%。
政策性银行
三家政策性银行－国家开发银行、中国进出口银行和中国农业发展银行是为了让四大银行可集中从事商业贷款而成立，其使命是主要为政府援助项目融资。
其它国内银行业金融机构
从事商业银行业务的中国其它国内金融机构包括城市商业银行、农村商业银行、农村合作银行、城市信用合作社和农村信用合作社。
中国银行业改革
改革银行业是中国政府经济改革的其中最大挑战之一。该等改革主要集中于改良一个法律及监管架构；改善资产品质及资本基础；及利率自由化。
改良法律监管架构
中国政府为改良法律监管架构而采取的措施包括：
--建立独立中央银行系统，初步以中国人民银行作为中央银行及银行监督机构；
--于2003年4月建立中国银监会，中国人民银行的银行监督及规管职能转移至中国银监会；及
-- 对全国所有金融机构实施新公司治理及管理标准。见「监管」一节。
改善资产质量及增强资本基础
中国银行业以往一直承担大量不良贷款。根据中国银监会的资料，四大国有商业银行、政策性银行及股份制商业银行的不良贷款于2004年年终时达大约人民币17,000亿元，占中国全国总贷款额13.2%。下表载有有关国有商业银行及股份制商业银行于所示日期不良贷款的部份资料：
按等级划分的不良贷款：
次级
可疑
损失
按银行类别划分的不良贷款：
四大银行
股份制商业银行(1)
资料来源：中国银行业监督管理委员会
(1) 包括交通银行、中信实业银行、中国光大银行、华夏银行、中国民生银行、广东发展银行、深圳发展银行、招商银行、兴业银行、上海浦东发展银行及囱丰银行。
基于中国银行业庞大的不良贷款，中国政府已采取多项措施，以解决不良贷款的问题，及提高国内银行的资本充足率。于1999年，中国政府成立四家资产管理公司，以承担及解决中国银行的不良贷款。于1999年，四大银行合共转让人民币14,000亿元之资产予该四家资产管理公司。于2004年，中国建设银行、中国银行及本银行再次转让超过人民币3,300亿元不良贷款予信达。为让银行及监管机关按照国际标准更有效监察银行资产质素，于2002年正式实施五级贷款分类制度。
在转让该等不良贷款的同时，监管机关亦使用注资方法，以增强商业银行的资本基础。于1998年，合共向四大国有商业银行注入人民币2,700亿元。于2004年，另外再向中国银行及中国建设银行注入450亿美元，让两家银行重整资本。于2004年，本银行获得注资人民币180亿元。有关详情见「本银行的重组－财务重组」一节。
利率改革
中国的商业银行按照中国人民银行不时公布及修订的指引利率制定人民币存款利率及贷款利率。然而，中国政府已采取渐进措施，藉扩大商业银行以指引利率为基准厘定的人民币借款利率的范围，以开放利率管制。
于1987年1月，中国人民银行首次让国内商业银行以高于中国人民银行基准利率20%的上限及低于10%的下限范围厘定人民币借款的利率。经过期内历年调升之后，于2004年1月1日，中国人民银行再将人民币借款（按揭及政策性贷款除外）的利率上限提高至不超过基准利率70%。随后于2004年10月29日，中国人民银行更将人民币借款利率的上限撤销，只保留有关利率下限。于同日生效，所有接受存款机构现在可以调低（但不是调高）人民币存款至低于中国人民银行基准利率。详情请见「监管」一节。
中国银行业的外来竞争
外国金融机构透过在中国与中国金融机构组成合营金融机构或成立外商独资金融机构进入中国内地市场。根据《中国金融年鉴》的资料显示，于2003年12月31日，中国政府已批准64家外资银行于中国开设169家分行及支行以及设立15家外商独资商业银行、合营商业银行和财务公司。根据中国人民银行的资料，截至2003年12月31日，外资金融机构占中国金融机构的总资产的1.5%。
中国法律和法规亦允许外国金融机构购买或认购有限的中国银行股权。目前，每间外国金融机构可以购买或认购一间中国银行不超过20%的股权。例如，汇丰银行于2004年8月购买了本银行19.90%的股权。
尽管外国银行在中国境内的业务范围仍然受到法规约束的限制，但中国银行业逐步对外国实体开放。在中国加入世贸组织时，外国银行已获准在中国提供涉及外币的服务及产品，并无地域或客户类别限制。从2004年12月11日开始，外国银行获准在18个大城市（其中包括北京和上海）向中国企业提供涉及人民币的服务及产品。于2006年年底，中国银行业将对外国银行全面开放，并无地域或客户类别限制。因此预期中国银行界会因外国银行的进入而致竞争激烈。
此外，中国内地与香港之间的更紧密经贸关系安排于2004年1月1日起生效，该安排是一项自由贸易协议，简称CEPA。CEPA容许较小型的香港银行进入中国银行业，因而本银行预期这将加剧中国银行业的竞争。例如，根据CEPA，在香港注册成立总资产在60亿美元或以上的商业银行均有资格在中国成立分行。作为比较，根据中国人民银行及中国银监会的相关规例，在其它司法管辖区注册成立的商业银行须拥有总资产200亿美元或以上始符合资格申请成立分行。
零售及私人银行业务增长
尽管企业银行业务仍为大多数国内商业银行的主要业务，提供零售及私人银行产品和服务亦发展迅速。举例说，根据中国人民银行的统计，消费贷款余额由1998年年底的人民币172亿元跃升至2003年年底的人民币15,733亿元，占未收回贷款总额的9.9%和国内生产总值的13.5%。然而，中国的个人借贷水平仍远低于其它国家。
银行卡
银行卡在中国的渗透率仍较在发达国家低，故银行卡业务在近年获得快速增长。根据中国人民银行的统计，所发行的总卡数由截至2001年12月31日的3.83亿张增至截至2004年12月31日的7.62亿张。此项增长亦促使电子银行终端网络不断扩大。
在中国，借记卡已成为银行卡的主要类型。截至2004年12月31日，所发行的借记卡达到6.63亿张。截至同一日，所发行的信用卡有9,800万张。信用卡市场的发展受到各种原因的制约，当中包括权限受到严格限制、全国性付款设施发展欠佳和缺乏全国性个人信用资料系统。然而，随着获得从事信用卡业务发行权的银行日益增多，中国银联的发展和由中国人民银行所颁布成立全国性个人信用数据库，预期信用卡业务将在未来获得快速发展。
个人住房抵押贷款
从1990年起，中国的住房需求日益攀升，此时，中国政府开始实行住房改革，削减国企职工及公务员的住房褔利。截至2004年12月31日，未偿还个人住房抵押贷款余额总计人民币16,000亿元，约为1998年年底余额的38倍。抵押贷款成为中国银行消费贷款的主体。个人住房抵押贷款巿场成为中国经济持续增长的重要推动力。尽管中国政府从2003年起对房地产业贷款采取措施，实施紧缩政策，个人住房按揭贷款仍保持高速增长。
XXX
| | Chinese to English: Copper Futures 期货 (News) | Source text - Chinese
国储抛铜：隐性库存与隐性空头能平衡吗？国储亮出“家底”已两周了，然而，国际、国内 铜价仍然不为所动，继续上涨或居高不下。11月4日本报第11版《为什么要将秘密公开》一文，提出“国储为何将交割8万吨铜的消息提高到如此高的‘透明度’”的话题。今天，本报再次约请资深分析师诚剔对此解答。
市场一直围绕两个问题争执不下。其一是“隐性库存”；其二是“隐性空头”。前者的存在其实早在许多分析机构的预期之中，只不过这些隐性库存的出处何在？后者也是投机者耿耿于怀的，只不过按市场惯例不便直接指名道姓而已。
针对这两者动作可能产生的影响，市场分歧进一步尖锐。从具体交易行为看，LME和COMEX的总持仓量始终居高不下，这充分说明围绕上述两个题材，看涨者与看跌者都不愿退场。因此在LME周再次对市场有了新的展望后，“机构交易商怎样从目前的紧张状况下摆脱出来”便成了短期内铜价涨跌的焦点，他们手里持有庞大的空头部位，有能力放出一定库存，且已经亮了“家底”。
国储亮出“家底”的同时，一些国家信息中心的分析师们也随即表示：“铜价实在太高，已经严重影响国家经济的可持续发展。国储放出库存是为了平抑国内铜价，使消费者获得有利的消费环境。”
然而，笔者认为，国际市场对此的理解是“正面理解、反面消化”。一方面，铜是中国严重紧缺的工业原材料，老外比国内人士更加深信不疑。另一方面，对于国储库存，老外也早有研究。过去的一年里，市场一直认为“国储在2004年间至少向市场释入了30万吨铜后，库存已经空虚，会在适当的时间内进一步补库”，原因是：中国长期缺铜，而且随着铜价不断上涨，补库的“适当时机”一直未曾出现。而目前，国储不但不补库，还要清库。上海期货交易所的铜库存连续两周共大幅上升3万多吨。即使在这种现实下，上海铜价也没有“平抑”下来。
如此一来，国际市场许多经纪商开始亮出国储在国际市场上有多少“隐性空头”的底牌来。据估计，这些被认为已经深“套”的低位空头数量竟然“至少”高达30万吨。言下之意，即使国储有能力交上8万吨货的话，也挽求不了其处于严重亏损的空头部位。而且这些空头部位分布的时间跨度很长，许多都分布在远期，其交货库存即使开始也将是一个漫长的过程。市场若据此理解目前的状况的话，铜价还能跌得下来吗？
国储放铜能根本上动摇市场的中长期平衡吗？这是一个需要时间才能得到答案的问题。尽管LME周活动中不乏“2006年市场将会出现明显过剩”的预测，但市场较为普遍的预期是：至少在今后的3到6个月中，铜市供应紧张将不会得到根本解决。
笔者认为，国储最近的举措，惟一目的是在国内甚至国际市场制造一种需求“休克”气氛。因为任何市场参与者现在都会相信中国对铜需求的中流砥柱作用，但铜市毕竟是一个最具全球化意义的国内期货市场，在其本身已经十分稳定的跨市套利机制形成后，人为地扭曲这种机制显然是十分不明智的。
经过向国内大量施放库存后，不仅国内铜价没有根本“平抑”，本来就不合理的差价还令许多反套者深感不安。昨天上午，国内许多反套者开始在LME单边平仓。这些在LME持有的空头部位丝毫没有从“国储在国内放铜”中得到安慰。
中国的市场参与者已深刻理解中国铜需求对国际铜价的影响，因此国储放铜已起不到像去年那样对国内铜价的打压作用，国内的投机者也没有了“跟风”打压价格的兴趣。笔者认为，这是国内参与者对国际铜市的了解已经加深的体现。在当前低库存环境下，再次以为“释放库存会使国际市场形成中国需求将因此而‘休克’”的想法可能过于天真。随着西方制造业从第三季度开始显示出明显的复苏迹象，向国际市场释放库存短期内仍将会出现“肉包子打狗，有去无回”的局面。
笔者认为，在当前全球资源紧缺的环境下，我们更不能忘了当年“株冶事件”留给我们的教训。曾几何时，当株冶的所谓保值空头在LME被套时，我们不也曾看到过大量的现货被交割至LME吗？然而损失并没有因此而全部挽回。世界因中国经济的强劲增长而改变，今年所面临的环境远比“株冶事件”当年严峻，否则我国经济的可持续发展何以会因原材料供应紧张遇到“瓶颈”呢？可见，任何代表国家利益的交易行为都应以国家的长期可持续发展为根本出发点，否则，不但会扰乱国内市场的秩序，而且会使国际投机分子更加有机可乘。 | Translation - English
Could the unreported stocks and naked short position be possibly balanced
Editor's note:
The China's State Reserve Bureau (SRB) has release copper stocks onto the market for two weeks now, however, such action didn't have a marked effect on prices neither internationally or domestically. Prices continue upward trend and stay high. An article was published on page 11, in the 4th November issue of this newspaper, titled " Show off the secret, Why? " in which the writer wonders what’s the reason made SRB decide to provide such high degree transparency for this 80000 tons copper deal. Today, a senior analyst has been invited to present an explanation regarding to this subject once more.
Two question constantly confusing the market; one is the "unreported stocks", the other is "naked short position". The first one’s existence actually as early as many analyses organizations anticipated, the only matter is where are their sources? The second one is also something the speculators’ headache, But pursuant to the market practices their names have been hold.
A sharp value distinction has grown up in the market regarding to the influence that their actions may possibly lead. The quantum of the aggregate gross position of LME and COMEX stay high constantly, from the transaction’s practical point of view, this shows the investors, either who believe the market will go up or down, will not quit. Therefore, after a new forecasting by LME this week, “How the institutional get rid of the intense tension” became new focus of the copper price in short term. They have massive short position, are able to release some stocks and had put all cards on the table.
While the SRB reveals its ins and outs, some analysts from the state info-centre indicate immediately “The copper price is over high and has affect the sustainable development of the state economy seriously. To calm down the domestic copper price and trying to achieve a better investment climate are the plans of the SRB.”
However, the author considers that the international market’s understanding will be " To see from the front, to comprehend from the other side's perspective. First of all, copper is China’s frequently shorted raw material and foreign investors even believe this more than the Chinese do. On the other side, For the SRB’s stocks status, foreign investors have investigated at an early time already. In the past year, the market kept the thought that " After has sold over 0.3 million ton coppers in 2004, the SRB’s stock is going to be empty, At an appropriate time SRB will take further to cover its stock." the reason is: China lacks copper for a long time, moreover the non-stop price raising gives no opportunity for the coming of ‘the appropriate time’. Especially at present, the SRB seems not going to cover its stock but clearing it out. In Shanghai, the copper futures exchange stock has raise up to 30 thousand tons more for two weeks constantly. But even calculate this matter of fact, the Shanghai copper price has not “calm down”.
So, In the international market, many brokers start to reveal how many "naked short position" that the SRB has internationally. It is estimated that the deeply “covered” low-price short position should be at least 0.3 million tons, it means that, even the SRB has the ability to put in 80 thousand tons copper, It is far away to help anything, plus the time period for these lacks are various and long term, even if their stock return starts right now, it will still be a long process. Pursuant to the current condition, Will the copper price go down?
Will the SRB’s stock release affect the market’s middle to long-term basis? This is a question, which could be answer after a period of time’s wait and see. Although some people say that frome the LME’s weekly activity "the market will be overstock in 2006", but the more common anticipate is: In the next 3 to 6 months (at least), the intense situation of copper supplement won’t sort out basically.
The author thinks the sole goal of the SRB's recent action is to make sort of demanding "shock" atmosphere nationally, even internationally. Because any player in the market believes that China is the mainstay of the demanding for the copper. But the fact is, the copper market is such a domestic futures market that has the international concepts most. Its own steady cross-market manipulation system has been build. It is not wise to mess around.
After the stock been massively released, not only the national copper price has been go downwards but also the un-reasonable price differentials make plenty people, who be able to un-cover, suffering deep nervous. Yesterday morning, many people who be able to uncover started to cover the stock in LME. These short positions in LME have not obtained any comfort from the State Reserve Bureau’s action.
Players in China's market has understood the influence of the Chinese demanding for the international copper, therefore the state storage can not have the same clout as last year to give pressures to the domestic, The speculators has no interest to follow either. The author considers, this reflects that the domestic participators’ desire to join in the international copper market. Under the current situation, that the stock is low, the thinking of " market shock" idea could be childish.
From the author point of view, we could not forget the lesson from" Zhu Ye event" Have we see plenty spot transactions to LME when the so-called short hedges were covered in LME? However the loses has not been reverted. The world has been affected because of the Chinese fast-growing economy. This year, the environment we facing is far more serious than the " Zhu Ye event", How our country’s economy could be developed continually with a "the bottleneck " of raw material supply? In one word, any transaction on behalf of the national interests should stands for the country’s long time development as a basic.
| | Chinese to English: Franchise Contract(Intangible Assets) 连锁合同 | Source text - Chinese
第10条 商号和无形资产的许可使用
甲方的授权
甲方在受托管理本饭店期间，授权乙方在本饭店（仅限于本饭店）使用甲方专有的“XXX”商号商标对外经营，并使用甲方的出品技术、经营理念、管理服务技巧、宣传模式、品牌字号、独特的装饰设计及风格突出的布局陈设，甲方同时允许乙方使用其他由甲方许可的无形资产。如甲乙双方准备于本合同期满后或不论任何原因结束双方的合作关系，乙方必须于双方合作结束后七（7）天内拆除一切在合同期内经甲方书面同意而使用的与甲方有关的任何标志，同时更换相关的印刷品，一切因此而引起的费用由乙方承担。否则每延迟一天，乙方应按日向甲方支付违约金人民币xxx元（￥xxx）整。
10.2 一般许可
乙方在本饭店对甲方的商号、商标和无形资产的使用为一般许可使用，即不影响甲方自己使用和甲方同时许可他人使用，也不论是否与本饭店在同一地区使用。
10.3许可使用的终止
本合同终止，则许可使用同时终止。
第11条 有关高层管理人员的特别约定
11.1 聘任限制
高层管理人员的聘任由甲方全权负责。
11.2聘任期限
高层管理人员的劳动合同中约定甲方每两年可对高层管理人员的工作进行调动，高层管理人员须服从甲方在其管理的企业内的工作调动，该调动的最低职位为与其在合同期内的职位相同。本饭店聘用的高层管理人员与乙方签订的劳动合同期限不得超过本合同的期限；本合同终止时，劳动合同亦同时终止。
第12条 违约责任
12.1责任条款
如任何一方不履行本合同义务或履行本合同义务不符合约定，应当承担继续履行、采取补救措施或者赔偿损失等违约责任。若另一方根据本合同第6.2条或第7.3条的规定解除合同并同时要求赔偿损失的，违约方不得拒绝，但因不可抗力造成的损失除外。
12.2赔偿范围
如任何一方不履行本合同义务或履行本合同义务不符合约定，给对方造成损失的，损失赔偿额应相当于因违约所造成的损失，包括合同履行后可以获得的利益，但不得超过违约一方在订立本合同时预见到或应当预见到的因违约所造成的损失。
第13条 适用法律和争议的解决
13.1适用法律
本合同的订立、效力、解释、履行和争议的解决均受中华人民共和国法律管辖。
13.2争议的解决
若因本合同发生任何争议，甲乙双方首先尝试通过友好协商解决争议。若协商不成，双方同意选择以合同签订所在地法院为管辖法院，以诉讼方式解决。
第14条 不可抗力
14.1 若本合同的任何一方因不可抗力而无法履行其义务的，特别是造成无法进行本饭店的正常经营时，则受此影响的一方应立即以电话、传真、电报、电子邮件等快捷方式通知对方，并应在不可抗力发生之日起十五日内，向对方提供不可抗力的详情及合同不能履行或迟延履行或部分履行的书面文件，并且该文件应由不可抗力发生地的公证机关公证。按照对履行合同的影响程度，由双方协商决定迟延履行或部分履行或解除合同。
14.2“不可抗力”被定义为：不可预见、不可避免、不可克服的客观情况。
14.3 本合同约定，以下客观情况可视为“不可抗力”：
（1） 地震、台风、飓风、水灾、火灾、旱灾、虫害、瘟疫等自然灾害；
（2） 国家政策调整、税制重大变动、行政禁令等政府或立法行为；
（3） 战争、暴动、罢工、骚乱等社会突发事件；
（4） 其他不可预见、不可避免、不可克服的客观情况。
第15条 其他规定
15.1通知
甲乙双方可以电话、传真、电报、电子邮件、书信等方式通知对方。若通知内容涉及本合同实质要件的，应采用书面形式，专人送交或挂号信邮寄。专人送交的，交付当日视为送达日；挂号信邮寄的，以信件寄出之日起的第五（5）天视为送达日。除非一方事先规定了不同的地址，通知地址即为本合同中所列的甲乙双方的法定地址。
15.2本合同效力
本合同经双方法定代表人或授权代表签署后，自乙方向甲方全额支付本项目的开办策划费之日起生效。本合同的任何条款或其被认定为无效的部分条款并不影响本合同其他部分的效力。
15.3修改和补充
对本合同的任何修改和补充，均须以书面进行，并由双方法定代表人或授权代表签署后生效。
15.4本合同文本
15.4.1 本合同以中文书写，一式六份，甲乙双方各执三份，均具有同等法律效力。
15.4.2 甲、乙双方法定代表人或授权代表于本合同文首书明的日期签订本合同，以昭信守。
15.4.3 本合同条款的标题仅为方便参阅方便而设，不得用于解释合同条款。
15.4.4 本合同条款业经甲乙双方协商和谈判而达成，不构成任何一方的格式条款
| Translation - English
Article 10 Licensing of registered trademark and Intangible assets
10.1 Delegation of Authority
During the term of entrustment, herein licensed and franchised shall be named “XXX” without any suffix or prefix attached thereto and Party B shall exploit and display such of Party A's Marks and such produce technique, management theory, service skill, advertising mode, slogans, proprietary designs and layouts and other Intangible assets. If the parties agree to terminate this agreement by any reason, Party B shall forthwith discontinue all use of the Trademark and related files 7 days after the termination. All costs may raise by doing so shall be bore on Party B’s own expenses. There will be a default penalty of xxx RMB (￥xxx) from Party B to Party A for every one-day delay.
10.2 General Grant
The use of trademark, logo and Intangible assets by Party B is for general; it will not affect the use of Party A and others no matter if the mere privilege and license is be hold in the same region or not.
10.3 Termination
This privilege and license will be come to an end without notice after the termination of this agreement.
Article 11 Special Clauses for senior management
11.1 Appointment Limitation
The recruitment of senior mangers are in full charge of Party A.
11.2 Term of the position
As the labour agreement defined, the senior management shall be transferred in every two years. Manager shall respect to such position transfer within the enterprise he or she served and such transfer will be a lateral move or promotion. The labor agreement signed between Party B and senior management shall not over the term of this agreement. The labor agreement shall come to end at the termination day of this agreement.
Article 12 Events Of Default
12.1 Liability Clause
In event of any party defaults to take the obligations or liabilities compliance with this agreement, a discontinuance or correction of a breach shall constitute a cure thereof. If the other decide to terminate the agreement and retain the right to repayment of unpaid principal and any interest on all monies loaned by it to the default party. The faultless party shall not reject except such breach is caused by Force majeure.
12.2 Compensation
If any party defaults to take the obligations or liabilities compliance with this agreement and caused any losses or damages to the other as a result, the amount of the compensation shall equal to the loss or damage including the possible profits it should lead to, but not over the faultless party expected or should expected losses or damages before the valuation of this agreement.
Article 13 Applicable laws, Arbitration
13.1 Applicable Laws
The Initialisation, power, right of interpretation and fulfilment of this agreement is in full compliance with all applicable laws of People’s Republic of China.
13.2 Dispute Resolution
In the event of any dispute or difference arising out of or relating to this or the breach thereof, the parties hereto shall use their best effort to settle such disputes or differences in good faith negotiations. All disputes left under solve after consultation /mediation arising in connection with this agreement shall be finally settled under the rules of Local arbitration of the Chinese arbitration association.
Article 14 Force Majeure
14.1 No party shall be liable for any delay or failure of performance caused principally by reason of Acts of God, civil commotion, riot, strike, moratorium, war, revolution or any other cause beyond its control. The beaten party shall contact the other by phone, fax, telegraph, email or others immediately and send a written notice that confirmed by notary public with detail within fifteen days from the date of such force majeure. The parties may delay, partly end or terminate this agreement by conversation upon the condition.
14.2 “Force Majeure” hall mean any act that unexpected, un-avoided and causes beyond the reasonable control.
14.3 As the define of this agreement, conditions as defined below shall be recognized as “Force Majeure”
（1） Earthquake, typhoon, cyclone, flood, fire, drought, insect pest and murrain or other casualty naturally caused.
（2） Act of the state or federal government in its sovereign or agreementual capacity.
（3） War; civil disturbance, labor strikes or lock out, riot or mob violence and others;
（4） Other unexpected, un-avoided and causes beyond the reasonable control.
Article 15 Miscellaneous
15.1 Notification
The parties may contact each other by phone, fax, telegraph, email and letter etc.. It shall be writ down and send by certain person or post as a registered letter if it is important or has sensitive content. If send by person, is shall be sent in the same day; if by post, it shall be received in five days (5) from the send date. Unless one party decides to use a different address, the sending address should be the valid address as registered.
15.2 Validation of the agreement
The agreement come to valid after both parties sign and the full payment made from Party B to Party A received. Any item or clause, which recognized as invalid shall not affect the validation of the rest.
15.3 Modification and supplements
Any modification or supplement shall be carried out in written and become valid after signed by representative or authorized person from both parties.
15.4 Content
15.4.1 This agreement is drawn in Chinese and executed in six counterparts, each of which is an original and all of which collectively constitute one instrument and three for each party.
15.4.2 IN WITNESS WHEREOF, Party A and Party B’s representative or authorized person has hereunto signed this agreement at the date and place first above-written.
15.4.3 The title of each clause is only for easy to read, has no right of interpretation.
15.4.4 The clauses of this agreement were accomplished by the parties’ clarity through conversation.
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More Less | | Commercial Act | | MA-University of Northumbria upon Tyne | | Years of translation experience: 7. Registered at ProZ.com: Nov 2005. | | N/A | English to Chinese (University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne)
English to Chinese (University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne)
| | IOL | | Multiterm, Powerword, Powerpoint, SDL TRADOS | | http://www.myspace.com/songme |  CV/Resume (PDF) | | About me
Main Clients:
// Newcastle Crown Court - Interpreter
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// Durham City Council - Translator
// IKEA - Translator
// Invest in Sweden Agency - Translator
// Prine Investment plc. - Interpreter for London AIM
As a seasoned Interpreter/Translator, I've been the No. Interpreter/Translator of a British Crown Court for 5 years has the capability to produce fluent, elegant translations to suit the target audience's flavors.
Specialized in the areas of Commercial, legal, computer science, electronics, stock/futures investment, Biology
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May 27 |
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