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Chinese to English: Analysis and Forecast of China's Tree Nut Production, Consumption and Trade in Marketing Year 2019/20 General field: Bus/Financial Detailed field: Agriculture
Source text - Chinese 生产
核桃
由于全国各核桃产区气候条件较为理想，2019/20季（2019/09-2020/08）中国核桃产量预计将达到100万吨（带売），同比增幅18%。质量较上季也有明显提升。
在中国，核桃的种植遍及21个省份，但40%的栽种面积由丘陵和山地构成。目前，新疆已取代云南成为中国最大的核桃生产地区，占全国总产量的50%。其余栽种大省还包括陕西、山西、河北、甘肃和河南。一方面，产量的增长压缩了利润空间；另一方面，不少核桃果农开始转而栽种回报更为丰厚的坚果品类如夏威夷果和碧根果。鉴于以上两点，中国的核桃栽种面积或将从2019/20季开始缩水。
品种方面，中国的核桃品种多达50多种，多数为本土品种， Chandler、Hartley等进口品种在栽种上的占比较小。
巴旦木
2019/20季（2019/08-2020/07）中国巴旦木产量预计约为4.5万吨（去売），同比轻微上扬。栽种面积预计在94.5万亩（6.3万公顷）左右。
我国95%的巴旦木产自于新疆维吾尔自治区莎车县。由于农业投入不足、管理手段落后等原因、巴旦木的生产效率较低。新疆所出产的巴旦木无法同市场上Nonpareil、Monterey、Carmel、Independence等主流进口品种相竟争。事实上，莎车县的巴旦木几平全部由当地市场所消化，甚至未能走出新疆。
开心果
据报道，中国的开心果种植面积接近6万亩（4000公顷），但业界对2019/20季（2019/09-2020/08）的产量预估仅约为300吨。我国的开心果种植尚处于试水阶段，对适合中国的开心果品种、耕种技术、商业化生产等方面的探索仍方才起步。
夏威夷果
夏威夷果是中国发展最快的坚果品种。国际坚果及干果委员会（ International Nut and Dried Fruit）的统计数据显示：2019/20季（2019/09-2020/08），中国的夏威夷果产量预计约为3万吨（带壳），同比增长近40%，全国栽种面积约240万亩（16万公顷），其中云南占比93%、广西占比7%。
云南种植的夏威夷果品种主要来自于澳大利亚，尤为适合在高地区域进行栽种。广西则多为本土研发品种，较适应在湿热的低海拔地区进行生长。
榛子
据业界消息，不久的将来，中国在榛子这一坚果品种上就可实现自给自足。2019/20季（2019/09-2020/08）中国的榛子产量预计约为4万吨。全国种植面积在240万亩（16万公顷）左右，主要集中在黑龙江、辽宁、吉林、山东、河北省。品种以本土和欧洲的杂交品种为主。
碧根果
中国的碧根果种植主要集中在云南、安徽、江苏和浙江省，全国总面积预计约为70.5万亩（4.7万公顷）。由于大部分果树尚未投产，2019/20季（2019/09-2020/08）的产量预计仅为500吨。
价格
本季核桃的采收已拉开帷幕。在产量第二大省云南，今年核桃的田间收购价一度处于17元/公斤，相比去年同期下降近两成。近年，由于产量稳步提升，国内核桃的价格呈下降的趋势。据业内人士透露，未来中国的核桃产量或将与市场价格直接挂钩。由于部分丘陵和山地地区的核桃采收无法使用自动化设备，若价格进一步下跌，考虑到不菲的人力成本，果农或直接放弃采收。
消费
据一项2016年的市场调研，60%的中国消费者已对坚果的健康益处有所了解，全国坚果消费量正逐年提升。但相比发达国家，我国的人均坚果消费量仍处于较低水平，未来市场发展潜力十分巨大。报告指出，在各主要电商平台，坚果是零食类目下销量最大的产品，占比约25%；面包西点位居第二，占比约22%。
在销售终端，我国坚果产业的未来发展方向包括减少添加剂的使用、包装方式的创新（如推出每日定量的小包装）、各类坚果和干果的混合搭配等。
进口
中国的坚果产业整体发展迅猛，在核桃、夏威夷果、榛子品类上已经或即将实现自给自足。然而，在很长一段时间，对巴旦木和开心果的需求仍将依赖进口。高关税使得中国进口商对美国坚果的采购有所顾虑，然而巨大的市场缺口却又很难由其它供应国在短期内填补。
美国是全球最大的开心果供应国，而中国是全球最大的开心果进口国。开心果也是中国进口量最大的坚果品类。除了关税问题，美国2019/20季开心果自身将减产20%，这也将拉低中国对美国开心果的进口量。中国或不得不将更多目光投向全球第二大产量国-伊朗。
同样受制于关税，中国将澳洲巴旦木视为美国巴旦木的替代品。但据美国方面统计，全球82%的巴旦木供应量来自于加利福尼亚州。所以任何一国想要完全占据美国巴旦木在中国市场的份额都绝非易事。尽管中美贸易关系持续紧张，中国对巴旦木和开心果的进口量在2018/19季却并未下跌。
出口
富足的产量、产品国内价格的走低、人民币的贬值，以上因素都将促进中国核桃在2019/20季的出口。
中国的核桃出口以去壳核桃为主，传统海外市场为日本和欧盟，对吉尔吉斯斯坦的出口量近年也增长迅速。带壳核桃的出口则主要面向巴基斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦。
中国从2018/19季开始对本土生产的夏威夷果进行出口，但出口量非常有限。业界预估随着自身产量的上涨，中国或将成为全球主要的夏威夷果供应国之一。
Translation - English Production
Walnuts
As a result of ideal climate conditions, China's walnut production is expected to reach 1 million metric tons (MT) (in-shell basis) during marketing year (MY) 2019/20 (September-August) - an increase of 18 percent over last MY. The quality of this year's yield also appears to show noticeable improvements.
Walnuts are grown in 21 of China’s provinces, but 40 percent of the land used to grow them is on hills and mountains. At present, Xinjiang Province has replaced Yunnan Province as China's largest walnut production zone, accounting for 50 percent of total domestic production. Other major walnut producing provinces include Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Gansu and Henan. As the increase in productivity has compressed profit margins, many walnut growers have begun to plant more profitable nut varieties such as macadamia nuts and pecans. In view of the above two points, the land area dedicated to walnut growth will be reduced beginning from MY 2019/20.
China produces over 50 varieties of walnuts, mostly native species, and imported varieties such as Chandler and Hartley make up a relatively small portion of the total production.
Almonds
In MY 2019/20 (August-July) China's almond production is expected to reach 45,000 MT (shelled basis) - up slightly from last MY. The planting area is estimated to be around 63,000 hectares.
95 percent of China's almonds come from the Xinjiang region, particularly Shache County. Due to poor crop management and agricultural inputs, China's almond yield is very low. Xinjiang almonds are unable to compete with more mainstream imported varieties like Nonpareil, Monterey, Carmel, and Independence. In fact, nearly all almonds produced in Shache County are sold in local markets and are not exported out of Xinjiang.
Pistachio Nuts
According to reports, Xinjiang dedicated nearly 4,000 hectares of land to pistachio growth. However, the industry estimates yields of only about 300 MT in MY2019/20 (September-August). Most pistachio plantings in China are experimental, and exploration of suitable varieties and farming techniques for commercial production is still ongoing.
Macadamia nuts
Macadamia nuts are China's fastest-developing nut variety. International Nut and Dried Fruit Council statistics show that in MY 2019/20 (September-August), macadamia nut production is forecast at nearly 30,000 MT (in-shell basis), an increase of 40 percent over the previous year. The growing area of macadamia nuts is approximately 160 thousand hectares, 93 percent of which are in Yunnan and 7 percent in Guangxi.
Yunnan's macadamia nut varieties were mainly introduced from Australia, as they are particularly well-suited for growth in highland areas. In Guangxi Province, macadamia nut varieties are locally bred to adapt to the hot and humid lowland conditions.
Hazelnuts
According to industry sources, China will soon become self-sufficient in hazelnuts. In MY 2019/20 (September-August) China's Hazelnut production is forecast at 40,000 MT. Commercially cultivated area is estimated at 160,000 hectares, mainly in Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Shandong, and Hebei provinces. These hazelnut varieties are hybrids between local and European species.
Pecans
Most of China's pecan cultivation takes place in Yunnan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. The total area is estimated to be 47,000 hectares. However, since most of the pecan plantings have not yet begun to bear fruit, MY 2019/20 (September-August) output is expected to be only 500 MT.
Prices
This year's walnut harvest has recently begun. In Yunnan Province, the second largest province in terms of walnut production, farm gate prices for in-shell walnuts are quoted at RMB 17/kg ($2.4/kg) - a drop of 20 percent from the same period last year. In recent years, walnut prices have been on a downward trend as a result of a steady increase in production. According to industry sources, China's future walnut production will largely depend on market prices. Walnuts grown in hilly or mountainous areas cannot be harvested mechanically and must be harvested by hand. If prices continue to drop, many farmers may stop producing walnuts as manual labor is too expensive.
Consumption
According to a 2016 market survey, more than 60 percent of Chinese consumers are aware of the health benefits of tree nuts, and as a result, consumption is gradually increasing. However, China's per capita consumption is still low compared to developed countries, creating tremendous potential for market growth. Reports indicate that for the major e-commerce platforms, nuts account for the largest amount of sales among snack foods, at roughly 25 percent. Baked goods came second, at 22 percent.
China's tree nut industry is further looking into topics like reducing the use of additives, packaging innovations (such as the introduction of small packets containing a recommended daily quantity) as well as finding new combinations of nut varieties and dried fruits.
Imports
With the rapid development of its tree nut industry, China has nearly reached self-sufficiency in walnut, macadamia nut and hazelnut production. However, for the foreseeable future, China will still rely on imported almonds and pistachios. High tariffs on U.S. imports are a concern among Chinese tree nut procurers, who will have difficulty finding suppliers from other countries to fill in the market gaps in such a short period of time.
The United States is the world's largest supplier of pistachios, while China is the world's largest importer. In fact, pistachios account for the largest portion of China's tree nut imports. In addition to the issue of tariffs, the United States’ pistachio production is expected to decrease by 20 percent in MY 2019/20. This will also contribute to the decrease in China's pistachio imports from the U.S. China may need to look to Iran, the world's second largest pistachio-producing country.
China is also expected to look to Australian almonds as a replacement for those from the United States as a means to circumvent the tariff issue. However, according to U.S. statistics, 82 percent of the world's almond supply comes from California. So for any one country to fully replace U.S. almonds in the Chinese market is no easy task. Although China-U.S. trade relations continue to be tense, China's almond and pistachio import volumes were not affected in MY 2018/19.
Exports
Increased production, decreased prices and the devaluation of the RMB are all expected to increase China's walnut exports in MY 2019/20.
China primarily exports shelled walnuts to Japan and the EU. However, export quantities to Kyrgyzstan have also grown rapidly in recent years. In-shell walnut exports are mainly sold to Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan.
China began exporting domestically grown macadamia nuts in MY 2018/19 but the quantities were very limited. The industry predicts that as its production increases, China may become one of the world's leading suppliers of macadamia nuts.
French to English: Correspondant Suedois en France General field: Art/Literary
Source text - French Ça y est, cette fois, nous sommes d’attaque ! En ce matin préestival encore frais, après trois semaines sans que notre petite bande d’amis n’ait pu aller nager ensemble pour diverses raisons, nous reprenons le chemin pour un de ces rituels qui rendent la vie si douce parfois. Pierre a loué une Autolib’, une de ces petites casseroles grises électriques à quatre roues qui intriguent tant mes amis suédois en visite à Paris. Stéphane s’est muni de palmes et de gants pour nager.
Le programme, immuable, est bien établi : après une petite heure d’effort, nous irons boire un café et peut-être nous offrir quelques calories compensatrices et gratifiantes sous forme de croissants ou de baguette tartinée. Nous allons regarder la vie passer, nous raconter nos semaines, puis débattre sur le sempiternel sujet de savoir si l’existence actuelle d’un parti quasi unique et d’un état d’urgence permanent est une chance ou un danger pour la France. Bref, la vie avec ses hauts et ses bas. Un de ces mille instants du quotidien en France qui rend mes compatriotes verts de jalousie. Mais, aujourd’hui, la grille de la piscine Hébert, dans le 18e arrondissement, est fermée et cadenassée.
C’est curieux. Il n’y a même pas la pancarte habituelle : « Pour cause de mouvement social », etc. Pourtant, comme des milliers de Parisiens, nous nous sommes habitués à cette pancarte depuis quelques années. Si ce ne sont pas les maîtres-nageurs qui défendent leurs acquis sociaux, ce sont les agents d’accueil et d’entretien de la piscine qui réclament les mêmes primes que les bibliothécaires. Résultat : des centaines de millions d’investissements publics se retrouvent inutilisables, grosso modo, un jour sur deux.
Rêves de grandeur
Cette fois-ci, nous voyons pourtant un agent de la piscine prendre le soleil sur le toit. Ce monsieur nous voit et descend nous parler. « Les maîtres-nageurs n’ont pas pu venir à temps, car ils habitent en banlieue », explique-t-il. Il a les traits tirés et nous raconte que lui-même se lève à 5 heures du matin pour prendre ce satané RER et arriver au travail à l’heure afin d’assurer l’ouverture de la piscine à 7 heures. C’est connu : le RER souffre d’une régularité digne d’une piscine parisienne. Je compatis.
Dans cette France que j’aime tant, on a toujours réussi à engloutir des milliards pour quelques lignes de TGV au lieu de consacrer une infime partie de ces sommes à des infrastructures proches des habitants. Pourtant, j’adore les trains ! Mais quel aurait pu être le gain de qualité de vie si des douzaines de lignes, comme Paris - Brive-la-Gaillarde ou Caen-Paris, avaient été modernisées, au lieu de refaire tous ces travaux d’Hercule pour ce Concorde du rail qu’est le TGV ? Mais ce n’était sans doute pas assez prestigieux, ou assez grandiose, pour un pays comme la France, je suppose ?
Lorsque j’étais plus jeune déjà, on me disait que si un Français découvrait un alliage de métal robuste et à la légèreté révolutionnaire, on pouvait être sûr qu’il allait en faire un lanceur spatial, là où un Japonais allait inonder la planète avec une nouvelle gamme de clubs de golf. Question de perspective. Pour être gentil, on pourrait dire que l’un regarde les étoiles et l’autre son portefeuille. En tout cas, cela ne nous arrange guère pour notre heure de sport de fin de semaine. La caisse restera derrière des grilles baissées pendant encore un moment, nous apprend cet agent de piscine fort gentil.
Translation - English OK, we’re ready this time! On this crisp, early summer morning, after three weeks of not being able to swim together for various reasons, our small group of friends sets off for one of life’s simple pleasures. Pierre has rented an Autolib, one of those little, gray, four-wheeled tea kettles that never cease to intrigue my Swedish friends who are visiting Paris. Stéphane has armed himself with flippers and swimming gloves.
The plan is well established and unchangeable: after one short hour of exercise in the pool, we’ll go grab a coffee and perhaps treat ourselves to a few compensatory and gratifying calories in the form of croissants or buttered baguettes. We’ll watch life pass us by, talk about our weeks, then discuss the never-ending subject of whether the current existence of an almost single-party state which is in a permanent state of emergency presents an opportunity or a danger for France. In short, life’s ups and downs. It’s one of those thousands of moments of daily life in France that make my compatriots green with envy. But today, the gate to Hébert pool in the 18th Arrondissement is chained shut.
[Stop here]
It strange. There isn’t even the usual sign: “Closed due to social movement”, etc. However, like thousands of other Parisians, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing this sign over the last few years. If it’s not the lifeguards defending their social achievements, it’s the pool employees demanding the same benefits as the librarians. The result is the same: hundreds of millions in public investments are rendered unusable around half of the time.
Dreams of grandeur
This time, however, we see a pool employee sunbathing on the roof. He sees us and climbs down to say something. “The lifeguards weren’t able to arrive on time because they live in the suburbs,” he explains. He has drawn features, and tells us that he himself gets up at 5am to take the damn local train and get to work in time to ensure the pool opens at 7:00. It’s a well-known fact that the local trains are as irregular as Parisian pools. I can sympathize.
[new stop T0]
In France, a country so close to my heart, we’ve always been able to use up billions of euros entirely on just a few train lines, instead of dedicating even a minuscule portion to infrastructures closer to the citizens. Don’t get me wrong, I love trains! But what would have been the increase in quality of life if dozens of lines like Paris - Brive-la-Gaillarde or Caen-Paris had been renovated instead of undertaking the herculean task of building the “Concord of the Rail” that is the TGV? But I suppose that wouldn’t have been prestigious or grandiose enough for a country like France, would it…
When I was young, I was told that if a French person discovered a new stronger and lighter metal alloy, you could be sure that he would make a rocket ship out of it. A Japanese person on the other hand would use it to flood the world with a series of new golf clubs. It’s a question of perspective. To put it nicely, you could say that one is looking to the stars while the other is looking to his wallet. In any case, that hardly changes anything regarding our weekly hour of exercise. The register would stay behind the lowered gates for the time being, the pool employee kindly informed us.
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