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More Less | Sample translations submitted: 1| English to Chinese: Oil Price History and Analysis | Source text - English
Oil Price History and Analysis
Introduction
Crude oil prices behave much as any other commodity with wide price swings in times of shortage or oversupply. The crude oil price cycle may extend over several years responding to changes in demand as well as OPEC and non-OPEC supply.
The U.S. industry's price has been heavily regulated through production or price controls throughout much of the twentieth century. In the post World War II era oil prices have averaged $19.61 per barrel adjusted for inflation in 2000 dollars. Through the same period the median price for domestic crude oil was $15.25 in 2000 prices. That means that only fifty percent of the time from 1947 to 2003 have oil prices exceeded $15.25 per barrel. Until the March 28, 2000 adoption of the $22-$28 price band for the OPEC basket of crude, oil prices only exceeded $22.00 per barrel in response to war or conflict in the Middle East.
Over the same period world oil prices averaged $1.51 higher at $21.12 per barrel. The median world oil price of $15.89 was only slightly higher than the U.S. median of $15.25.
The Very Long Term View
The very long term view is much the same. Since 1869 US crude oil prices adjusted for inflation have averaged $18.43 per barrel compared to $19.20 for world oil prices.
Fifty percent of the time prices were U.S. and world prices were below the median oil price of $15.28 per barrel.
If long term history is a guide, those in the upstream segment of the crude oil industry should structure their business to be able to operate with a profit, below $15.28 per barrel half of the time.
Post World War II
Pre Embargo Period
Crude Oil prices ranged between $2.50 and $3.00 from 1948 through the end of the 1960s.
The price oil rose from $2.50 in 1948 to about $3.00 in 1957. When viewed in 1996 dollars an entirely different story emerges. In 1996 dollars crude oil prices fluctuated between $14 - $16 during the same period. The apparent price increases were just keeping up with inflation.
From 1958 to 1970 prices were stable at about $3.00 per barrel, but in real terms the price of crude oil declined from above $15 to below $12 per barrel. The decline in the price of crude when adjusted for inflation was further exacerbated in 1971 and 1972 by the weakness of the US dollar.
OPEC was formed in 1960 with five founding members Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. By the end of 1971 six other nations had joined the group: Qatar, Indonesia, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Nigeria. These nations had experienced a decline in the real value of their product since foundation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Throughout the post war period exporting countries found increasing demand for their crude oil and a 40% decline in the purchasing power of a barrel of crude. In March 1971, the balance of power shifted. That month the Texas Railroad Commission set proration at 100 percent for the first time. This meant that Texas producers were no longer limited in the amount of oil that they could produce. More importantly, it meant that the power to control crude oil prices shifted from the United States (Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana) to OPEC.
Middle East Supply Interruptions
Yom Kippur War - Arab Oil Embargo
In 1972 the price of crude oil was about $3.00 per barrel and by the end of 1974 the price of oil had quadrupled to over $12.00. The Yom Kippur War started with an attack on Israel by Syria and Egypt on October 5, 1973. The United States and many countries in the western world showed strong support for Israel. As a result of this support several Arab exporting nations imposed an embargo on the countries supporting Israel. Arab nations curtailed production by 5 million barrels per day (MMBPD) about 1 MMBPD was made up by increased production in other countries. The net loss of 4 MMBPD extended through March of 1974 and represented 7 percent of the free world production.
If there was any doubt that the ability to control crude oil prices had passed from the United States to OPEC it was removed during the Arab Oil Embargo. The extreme sensitivity of prices to supply shortages became all too apparent when prices increased 400 percent in six short months.
From 1974 to 1978 world crude oil prices were relatively flat ranging from $12.21 per barrel to $13.55 per barrel. When adjusted for inflation the prices were constant over this period of time.
Crises in Iran and Iraq
Events in Iran and Iraq led to another round of crude oil price increases in 1979 and 1980. The Iranian revolution resulted in the loss of 2 to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day between November of 1978 and June of 1979. In 1980 as a result of the Iran/Iraq War, Iraq's crude oil production fell 2.7 MMBPD and Iran's production fell 600,000 barrels per day. The combination of these two events resulted in crude oil prices more than doubling from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981.
US Oil Price Controls - Bad Policy?
The rapid increase in crude prices in this period would have been much less were it not for United States energy policy during the post Embargo period. The US imposed price controls on domestically produced oil in an attempt to lessen the impact of the 1973-74 price increase. The obvious result of the price controls was that U.S. consumers of crude oil paid 48 percent more for imports than domestic production. Of course U.S producers received less.
Did the policy achieve its goal? In the short term the recession induced by the 1973-1974 crude oil price rise was less. However, it had other effects as well. In the absence of price controls U.S. exploration and production would certainly have been significantly greater. The higher prices faced by consumers would have resulted in lower rates of consumption: automobiles would have had higher mileage sooner, homes and commercial buildings would have been better insulated and improvements in industrial energy efficiency would have been greater than they were during this period. As a consequence, the United States would have been less dependent on imports in 1979-1980 and the price increase in response to Iranian and Iraqi supply interruptions would have been significantly less.
OPEC's Failure to Control Crude Oil
Prices
OPEC has seldom been effective at controlling prices. While often referred to as one OPEC does not satisfy the definition of a cartel. One of the primary requirements is a mechanism to enforce member quotas. During the 1979-1980 period of rapidly increasing prices, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ahmed Yamani repeatedly warned other members of OPEC that high prices would lead to a reduction in demand. His warnings fell on deaf ears. The rapid price increases caused several reactions among consumers: better insulation in new homes, increased insulation in many older homes, more energy efficiency in industrial processes, and automobiles with higher mileage.
These factors along with a global recession caused a reduction in demand which led to falling crude prices. Unfortunately for OPEC only the global recession was temporary. Nobody rushed to remove insulation from their homes or to replace energy efficient plants and equipment -- much of the reaction to the oil price increase of the end of the decade was permanent and would not respond to lower prices with increased demand for oil.
From 1982 to 1985 OPEC attempted to set production quotas low enough to stabilize prices. These attempts met with repeated failure as various members of OPEC would produce beyond their quotas. During most of this period Saudi Arabia acted as the swing producer cutting its production to stem the free falling prices. In August of 1985, the Saudis tired of this roll. They linked their oil prices to the spot market for crude and by early 1986 increased production from 2 MMBPD to 5 MMBPD. Crude oil prices plummeted below $10 per barrel by mid year.
A December 1986 OPEC price accord set to target $18 per barrel was already breaking down by January of 1987. Prices remained weak. The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainty associated Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War, but following the war crude oil prices entered a steady decline until in 1994 inflation adjusted prices attained their lowest level since 1973.
The price cycle then turned up. The United States economy was strong and the Asian Pacific region was booming. From 1990 to 1997 world oil consumption increased 6.2 million barrels per day. Asian consumption accounted for all but 300,000 barrels per day of that gain and contributed to the price recovery that extended into 1997.
The price increases came to a rapid end when the impact of the economic crisis in Asia was either ignored or severely underestimated by OPEC. In December, 1997 OPEC increased its quota 2.5 million barrels per day (10 percent) to 27.5 MMBPD effective January 1, 1998. The rapid growth in Asian economies had come to a halt and in 1998 Asian Pacific oil consumption declined for the first time since 1982. The combination of lower consumption and higher OPEC production sent prices into a downward spiral. In response OPEC cut quotas by 1.25 million b/d in April and 1.335 million in July. Price continued down through December 1998. Prices began to recover in early 1999 as OPEC reduced prices another 1.719 million barrels in April 1999.
| Translation - Chinese
油價的歷史和分析
簡介
原油價格的波動，很大程度上和其他的大宗商品一樣，會由於緊缺或者供應過量而大幅擺動。原油的價格波動週期，基於市場需求、石油輸出國組織和非石油輸出國組織原油供應的變化，可能橫跨多年。
在20世紀的大部分時間裏，美國本土石油工業的價格通過對生產或者價格掌控，被嚴格地控管。在後二戰時代，以2000年的美元計算，扣除通漲的影響，油價平均是每桶19.61美元。在同一時期，本地原油價格的中間價，按2000年的美元計算，是每桶15.25美元。這說明1947-2003年間，只有50%的時間裏原油的價格超過了每桶15.25美元。在2000年3月28日，石油輸出國組織採取一攬子策略，限定每桶22-28美元為其幅度之前，油價只在中東出現戰爭或者衝突時才試過衝破每桶22美元。
在同一時期，國際油價平均是21.12美元，比本土高出1.51美元，國際油價的中間價15.89只比美國的中間價15.25略高一些。
超長遠的視角
從更長的時間跨度來看，結論是一樣的。從1869年開始，美國的原油價格扣除通脹因素平均是18.43美元，相比同期國際油價是19.20美元。
在50%的時間裏，美國和國際的油價是低於每桶15.28美元的中間價的。
假定長期的歷史可以提供指引的話，那些在石油工業上游部分的公司，就應該把他們的公司組建成即使在原油價格低於每桶15.28美元時，至少50%的時間裏仍然可以贏利。
二戰之後
石油禁運之前
原油的價格從1948年直到60年代末是在2.50-3.00美元之間波動。
從1948年，油價從2.50美元上升到1957年的約3.00美元。可如果用1996年的美元計算，情況就完全不同了。原油價格用1996年的美元計算是在14-16美元之間。這明顯的價格上升只是由於跟隨通漲。
從1958年到1970年，價格在約每桶3.00美元保持平穩，可實質上原油的價格從每桶15美元以上降到了12美元以下。這種原油價格的下跌，當扣除通漲的因素之後，尤其在1971到1972年間，由於美元的疲軟而變得更加明顯。
石油輸出國組織在1960年由五個創始成員國所成立，分別是伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、沙烏地阿拉伯和委內瑞拉。在1971年底，又有其他6個國家加入這個團體：卡塔爾、印尼、利比亞、阿拉伯聯合酋長國、阿爾及利亞和尼日利亞。這些國家在石油輸出國組織成立以後，已經感受到了他們的產品議價能力在下跌。
在整個後戰爭時期，各石油出口國目睹了市場對原油需求的不斷增加和每桶原油的實際購買力達40%的下跌。在1971年3月，各力量間的均衡被打破了。
那個月德州鐵路局第一次將配給的比率定在了100%。這就是說不再限定那些德州的開採商們能生產多少石油了。更重要的是，這表示對油價的控制權已經從美國（德克薩斯州、奧克拉荷馬州和路易斯安那州）轉到石油輸出國組織的手裏了。
中東石油供應的中斷
在1972年，原油的價格大約是在每桶3美元，而到了1974年底油價已經漲了4倍，超過了12美元。中東的贖罪日戰爭在1973年的10月5日，由敘利亞和埃及對以色列發動進攻而開始。美國和世界上很多西方國家都對以色列表示了強烈的支援。這種支持導致了幾個阿拉伯石油輸出國家，對支持以色列的國家實施了石油禁運。阿拉伯國家將每天生產的石油限定在500萬桶，大約有100萬桶是透過其他國家增加產量來擬補的。每天400萬桶原油的缺口一直維持到1974年的3月，這占了自由世界原油產量的7%。
如果對油價的控制權已經從美國轉到了石油輸出國組織還有任何懷疑的話，在經過阿拉伯的石油禁運之後，這種懷疑就已經不復存在了。當油價在短短的6個月就上漲了400%的時候，油價對供應的極度敏感就不言自明瞭。
從1974年到1978年，國際原油的價格相對的保持平穩，在每桶1221到1355美元之間徘徊。在扣除通漲的因素之後，油價在這一時期保持了平穩。
伊朗和伊拉克的危機
在1979年和1980年，在伊朗和伊拉克發生的事件導致了另一輪的原油價格上漲。伊朗的革命運動引發了從1978年11月到1979年6月，每天200到250萬桶原油產量的下降。到了1980年，因為兩伊戰爭，伊拉克每天的原油產量下跌了270萬桶，而伊朗的產量也減少了每天60萬桶。這兩個事件合起來使得原油價格，從1978年的14美元漲了超過一倍，到了1981年的每桶35美元。
美國對的油價控制—錯誤的策略？
這個時期原油價格的快速飛漲，如果不是因為美國在後禁運時期所採取的能源政策，原本幅度應該小的多。美國對本地生產的石油實施了價格管制，試圖減緩由於1973-1974價格上漲帶來衝擊。價格管制的一個明顯結果就是，美國的消費者們購買進口油時比買本地油多付了48%。自然美國的生產商們收入減少了。
這個政策有沒有達到它的目的呢？短線看，由於1973-1974年的原油價格上漲引致的經濟衰退得到了疏緩。然而，它還同時還帶來其他的影響。如果沒有當時的價格管制，美國對石油的勘探和開採量本應該大的多。當消費者面對的更高的油價，本該使石油的消耗率下降：汽車本該更早就可以提升每加侖油的可行駛哩數，私人住宅和商業大廈都本該將保溫隔熱做得更好，以及工業對能源使用效率的改進也本該比這一時期出現的要更大。最終的結果會是，在1979-1980年美國本來就應該可以少些依賴進口，因伊朗和伊拉克的石油供應中斷導致的油價上漲也就該小很多。
石油輸出國組織對原油價格操控的失敗
石油輸出國組織對控制油價很少做得有效率。組織經常面對的是針對一個成員國未能遵守共同協議的申訴。根本的先決條件之一就是要有一個能強制各成員國遵守配額的機制。在1979-1980年油價快速上漲的期間，沙烏地阿拉伯的石油部長 Ahmed Yamani 多次警告石油輸出國組織的其他成員國，高昂的油價會導致需求的下降。他的警告當時沒人理會。急速上漲的油價在消費者中引起了多重反應：新建房屋有了更好的保溫隔熱，舊私人房屋的保溫隔熱也進行了改進，工業生產過程中能源的使用效率更高，還有汽車的每加侖汽油行駛哩數也提升了。
這些因素加上全球的經濟衰退造成了需求的下降，進而造成了原油價格的下滑。惟獨石油輸出國組織很不幸，而全球的經濟衰退只是暫時的。沒有人會匆匆忙忙地將家裏的保溫隔熱拆除，或者換掉節省能源的工廠和設備---很多70年代末因油價上升引起的變化都是永久性的，而且不會油價下降了就增加對油的需求。
從1982到1985年，石油輸出國組織試圖設定產量的限額，低到足以保持油價穩定。這些嘗試由於石油輸出國組織的不同成員國超額生產而屢次失敗。在大部分的這段時間裏，沙地阿拉伯作為一個調節市場的產油國，削減它的產量來支撐滑落的油價。在1985年8月，沙地阿拉伯厭倦了這個角色。他們把他們的油價和現貨市場的原油價格掛鈎，在1986年初把日產量從200萬桶提升到500萬桶。原油的價格到年中時直跌到了10美元以下。
1986年12月石油輸出國組織達成的價格協定，旨在將油價維持在每桶18美元這個目標，該協定在1987年的1月就開始失靈了。價格仍然疲軟。原油的價格在1990年，由於伊拉克入侵科威特和緊接著的海灣戰爭引起的未知因素，曾經短暫地上升過，但在戰爭之後原油的價格穩步的走向低谷，到1994年為止，扣除通漲因素，油價跌到了1973年以來的最低點。
油價的週期之後開始向上。美國的經濟那時很強，而且亞太地區也在蓬勃發展。從1990年到1997年，世界石油的消耗量每天增加了620萬桶。亞洲每天只消耗了全部增長中的30萬桶，促進了油價的回升延續進入了1997年。
由於石油輸出國組織不是忽略了，就是過低地估計了亞洲金融危機的影響，油價的升勢驟然停止。在1997年12月，石油輸出國組織還增加了它的配額，每天250萬桶（百分之10）達到每天2750萬桶，從1998年1月1日開始生效。原本急劇增長的各亞洲經濟體已經陷入停頓，而且在1998年亞太地區對石油的消耗量，自1982年起第一次有了下降。低迷的消費市場和石油輸出國組織更高的產量，合起來使油價應聲下滑。石油輸出國組織作出反應，在4月削減日產量125萬桶，在7月再削減日產量133萬5千桶。油價繼續向下直到1998年12月。在1999年初，隨著石油輸出國組織在4月再削減日產量172萬9千桶，油價開始回升。
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