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Thread poster: chance (X)
Hanyi Magnusson
Hanyi Magnusson  Identity Verified
Bermuda
Local time: 12:20
English to Chinese
+ ...
mortgage invention Aug 17, 2007

wherestip wrote:

... All kinds of creative lending schemes were born - no income check mortgages, no credit check mortgages, balloon mortgages, 100% financing, etc. etc.

...:D


This is really funny--hot balloon mortgages, is this your own invention, Steve? Vivid.

In a way, US housing market has enjoyed a real party for a while, maybe this is a good reality check. Even though Fed will lower the interest again, would you think the consumer confidence will come back again?

Value investing is more rewarding in long-term, but it is also harder to stick to. Sometimes, everyone is enjoying the party, only you looked totally out of the place...


 
isahuang
isahuang
Local time: 11:20
English to Chinese
+ ...
subprime Aug 17, 2007

chance wrote:

我是什么都好奇,但希望不要耽误你太多时间


Hi Chance,

The subprime issue that roiled the market is quite complicated. Its a combination of several factors at work. the easy credits during the housing boom lowered the requirements for mortgage application. The subprime won't be a issue as long as the housing price is rising. Yet, clearly this is not the current situation. The mortgages are usaully packed into different securities, like mortgage backed securities, and sold to investors all over the world. The current turmoil started when people with subprime credit couldn't pay back their loan. This reduces the value of those mortgage backed securities, and in many cases, those securities become worthless. Many hedge funds are heavily invested in these type of high yield yet high risk securities. Recently BNP Paribas stoped redemption of two funds that are caught in the subprime turmoil because they couldn't find buyer for those securities as investors are shying away from risky assets.
This is really a very technical issue, and I am just quoting from here and there. Here is a link to an interview with my favorite professor about this issue: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/08/14/stories/2007081450040700.htm

He is brillant and was interviewed on CNBC "Squawk Box Europe" at the end of July. I am sure you can find someting useful from this link.


 
wherestip
wherestip  Identity Verified
United States
Local time: 10:20
Chinese to English
+ ...
Balloon Mortgage Aug 17, 2007

Hanyi Magnusson wrote:

This is really funny--hot balloon mortgages, is this your own invention, Steve? Vivid.

In a way, US housing market has enjoyed a real party for a while, maybe this is a good reality check. Even though Fed will lower the interest again, would you think the consumer confidence will come back again?



Hanyi,

No, I didn't make that term up. There really is such an animal ...

http://www.mtgprofessor.com/A%20-%20Balloon%20Loans/is_a_balloon_loan_better_than_an_arm.htm

http://www.mortgagecontent.net/content/pdf/balloon_mortgages.pdf


I'm no economist, so I really can't comment on stuff like consumer confidence. However, I do think consumer spending has been extremely resilient. I'm surprised at its robustness even with the downturn in home sales and the tremendous rise in gas prices. The economy indeed seems to be chugging along fine.


 
isahuang
isahuang
Local time: 11:20
English to Chinese
+ ...
an article Aug 17, 2007

wherestip wrote:

Hanyi,

No, I didn't make that term up. There really is such an animal ...

http://www.mtgprofessor.com/A%20-%20Balloon%20Loans/is_a_balloon_loan_better_than_an_arm.htm

http://www.mortgagecontent.net/content/pdf/balloon_mortgages.pdf


I'm no economist, so I really can't comment on stuff like consumer confidence. However, I do think consumer spending has been extremely resilient. I'm surprised at its robustness even with the downturn in home sales and the tremendous rise in gas prices. The economy indeed seems to be chugging along fine.



Many commentators say that its the low unemployment rate that has helped to hold the consumer's head above water. It has some truth in it. I always plan my spending according to the future of my job. I would tighten my belt if I am not sure whether I could keep my job in the near future.
Back to the housing related issues, I read an interesting article on people's daily a while ago, here is the link http://sc.people.com.cn/news/HTML/2007/7/17/20070717103716.htm


 
Jianjun Zhang
Jianjun Zhang  Identity Verified
United Kingdom
Local time: 16:20
English to Chinese
+ ...
Chinese way of saying no... Aug 17, 2007

Tingting,

I just browsed through the article behind the link. While reading 中国官员“对新的想法持开放态度”, I remembered something interesting:

A former President Greater China, McDonald's was once interviewed by a local Chinese TV station. When asked his impression regarding the local Chinese officials, he said one of the things he was impressed by was their Chinese way of tactfully saying "no" without offending directly.

“我们会考
... See more
Tingting,

I just browsed through the article behind the link. While reading 中国官员“对新的想法持开放态度”, I remembered something interesting:

A former President Greater China, McDonald's was once interviewed by a local Chinese TV station. When asked his impression regarding the local Chinese officials, he said one of the things he was impressed by was their Chinese way of tactfully saying "no" without offending directly.

“我们会考虑。” or “我们研究研究。” could turn out to be a polite refusal.

I don't think in the end the Chinese officials will agree buying into this kind of mortgage bond. As you see, now these bonds could worth nothing at all.


Tingting Huang wrote:

wherestip wrote:

Hanyi,

No, I didn't make that term up. There really is such an animal ...

http://www.mtgprofessor.com/A%20-%20Balloon%20Loans/is_a_balloon_loan_better_than_an_arm.htm

http://www.mortgagecontent.net/content/pdf/balloon_mortgages.pdf


I'm no economist, so I really can't comment on stuff like consumer confidence. However, I do think consumer spending has been extremely resilient. I'm surprised at its robustness even with the downturn in home sales and the tremendous rise in gas prices. The economy indeed seems to be chugging along fine.



Many commentators say that its the low unemployment rate that has helped to hold the consumer's head above water. It has some truth in it. I always plan my spending according to the future of my job. I would tighten my belt if I am not sure whether I could keep my job in the near future.
Back to the housing related issues, I read an interesting article on people's daily a while ago, here is the link http://sc.people.com.cn/news/HTML/2007/7/17/20070717103716.htm


[Edited at 2007-08-17 04:05]
Collapse


 
isahuang
isahuang
Local time: 11:20
English to Chinese
+ ...
用中国人的钱,实现美国人的"房产梦" Aug 17, 2007

[quote]Jianjun Zhang wrote:

Tingting,

I just browsed through the article behind the link. While reading 中国官员“对新的想法持开放态度”, I remembered something interesting:

A former President Greater China, McDonald's was once interviewed by a local Chinese TV station. When asked his impression regarding the local Chinese officials, he said one of the things he was impressed by was their Chinese way of tactfully saying "no" without offending directly.

“我们会考虑。” or “我们研究研究。” could turn out to be a polite refusal.

I don't think in the end the Chinese officials will agree buying into this kind of mortgage bond. As you see, now these bonds could worth nothing at all.


[quote]Tingting Huang wrote:

wherestip wrote:

Hanyi,

No, I didn't make that term up. There really is such an animal ...

http://www.mtgprofessor.com/A%20-%20Balloon%20Loans/is_a_balloon_loan_better_than_an_arm.htm

http://www.mortgagecontent.net/content/pdf/balloon_mortgages.pdf


I'm no economist, so I really can't comment on stuff like consumer confidence. However, I do think consumer spending has been extremely resilient. I'm surprised at its robustness even with the downturn in home sales and the tremendous rise in gas prices. The economy indeed seems to be chugging along fine.



that's true about the polite way of saying no. Asians are indirect. One needs to read between lines to figure out what they really mean.
About the article, I am mostly impressed by the comment of the author: the americans want to 用中国人的钱,实现美国人的"房产梦"actually Americans lavish spending is largely backed by the foreign purchase of their T-bill (mostly the chinese). However, many ordinary Americans haven't realized this.


 
chance (X)
chance (X)
French to Chinese
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
你们几位的讨论我感兴趣,谢谢! Aug 17, 2007

婷婷:你从青岛度假回来了,此行印象如何?

我们的总统昨天在美国度假地简短讲了几句,我比较赞成,看来他这次没有先听听美国主流经济学家们的意见

大意如下,仅供参考:

我崇尚自由,但自由不是弱肉强食法则,必须有透明度,必须有规矩,不能如此继续下去。我赞成经济给创业者机会,给企业员工机会,而不能让位给金融投机者。我并不认为国家对这种现象无能为力。

他建议10月份的G7财长会议就金融市场加强控制进行讨论,其实德国总理默克尔几个月前就提出要对speculation加强管理,毫无疑问受到美英的反对。我认为欧洲应该有独立的思考和行动能力。

[Edited at 2007-08-17 10:58]


 
isahuang
isahuang
Local time: 11:20
English to Chinese
+ ...
度假进行中 Aug 17, 2007

chance wrote:

婷婷:你从青岛度假回来了,此行印象如何?

我们的总统昨天在美国度假地简短讲了几句,我比较赞成,看来他这次没有先听听美国主流经济学家们的意见

大意如下,仅供参考:

我崇尚自由,但自由不是弱肉强食法则,必须有透明度,必须有规矩,不能如此继续下去。我赞成经济给创业者机会,给企业员工机会,而不能让位给金融投机者。我并不认为国家对这种现象无能为力。

他建议10月份的G7财长会议就金融市场加强控制进行讨论,其实德国总理默克尔几个月前就提出要对speculation加强管理,毫无疑问受到美英的反对。我认为欧洲应该有独立的思考和行动能力。

[Edited at 2007-08-17 10:58]


我还在青岛,这次回来赶上了啤酒节和国际帆船赛。这几天一直没闲着。忙里偷闲,也会来论坛扫上几眼。看到你们的讨论,我就手痒。青岛的房价看来是有与北京、上海接轨的趋势。以现在的房价来算,在美国打工挣来的钱,只购买个卫生间。:(


 
chance (X)
chance (X)
French to Chinese
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
青岛这个阶段是人太多,还是说得过去? Aug 17, 2007

青岛租房便宜,买房贵。如果真想买房,要往外围考虑,可以朝即墨方向考虑。还要看你是想投资还是自用,我知道你想住在城市里,东海国际饭店地点好,但那座楼不清静,酒店管理也差。

我把建军爱人带来的信息转告家人,她们打算也到沿海其它城市看看。

别忘了贴青岛照片给大家看看
Tingting Huang wrote:

我还在青岛,这次回来赶上了啤酒节和国际帆船赛。这几天一直没闲着。忙里偷闲,也会来论坛扫上几眼。看到你们的讨论,我就手痒。青岛的房价看来是有与北京、上海接轨的趋势。以现在的房价来算,在美国打工挣来的钱,只购买个卫生间。:(


 
wherestip
wherestip  Identity Verified
United States
Local time: 10:20
Chinese to English
+ ...
yes or no Aug 17, 2007

Tingting Huang wrote:

Jianjun Zhang wrote:

Tingting,

I just browsed through the article behind the link. While reading 中国官员“对新的想法持开放态度”, I remembered something interesting:

A former President Greater China, McDonald's was once interviewed by a local Chinese TV station. When asked his impression regarding the local Chinese officials, he said one of the things he was impressed by was their Chinese way of tactfully saying "no" without offending directly.

“我们会考虑。” or “我们研究研究。” could turn out to be a polite refusal.

I don't think in the end the Chinese officials will agree buying into this kind of mortgage bond. As you see, now these bonds could worth nothing at all.



that's true about the polite way of saying no. Asians are indirect. One needs to read between lines to figure out what they really mean.
About the article, I am mostly impressed by the comment of the author: the americans want to 用中国人的钱,实现美国人的"房产梦"actually Americans lavish spending is largely backed by the foreign purchase of their T-bill (mostly the chinese). However, many ordinary Americans haven't realized this.



That's a pretty funny and interesting observation. The link I found and provided to chance a few days ago also had this advice to foreign businessmen.

http://www.business-in-asia.com/chinabiztips.html



Chinese do not like to say no or to be the bearers of negative news. They will hint indirectly in the conversation. Similarly, you will hear a yes response to almost everything. You should be careful of these empty yes as it may not always draw positive conclusions. Verify what has been said to you. It is important that all parties maintain "face". If you think the answer to an issue is really no, verify your feeling by asking questions that can be answered positively.



I don't really remember people being so wishy-washy during the days of the Cultural Revolution and even prior to that. But I think if it is true nowadays, the habit needs to be kept in check. After all, we also have the saying of 一是一, 二是二. 客气还是要客气的, 但千万不能搞得人家以为你说话不算数.



[Edited at 2007-08-17 15:13]


 
wherestip
wherestip  Identity Verified
United States
Local time: 10:20
Chinese to English
+ ...
lo and behold Aug 17, 2007

This should spur a big rally on Wall Street today.



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-lowers-discount-rate-half/story.aspx?guid={4392BE56-A452-4A23-B83D-1F4E33BC660C}

Fed lowers discount rate by half a percentage point

By Mike Maynard

Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Aug 17, 2007

The Federal Reserve said it's cut the discount rate to 5.75%, down from 6.25% previously, in a move aimed at narrowing the gap between the discount rate and the federal funds rate, the target for which reaims at 5.25%. "Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth," the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. Accordingly, the FOMC said it "judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably." Fed officials are "monitoring the situation" and are "prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets," the FOMC said. Stock futures, which had been broadly lower before the Fed's announcement, turned high almost immediately.



 
chance (X)
chance (X)
French to Chinese
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
不是我主观,而是对现实的反思 Aug 17, 2007

如果不从现在的完全自由市场经济逻辑里解放出来,即便解决了这次危机,过不了多久其它危机东山再起

wherestip wrote:

This should spur a big rally on Wall Street today.



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-lowers-discount-rate-half/story.aspx?guid={4392BE56-A452-4A23-B83D-1F4E33BC660C}

Fed lowers discount rate by half a percentage point

By Mike Maynard

Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Aug 17, 2007

The Federal Reserve said it's cut the discount rate to 5.75%, down from 6.25% previously, in a move aimed at narrowing the gap between the discount rate and the federal funds rate, the target for which reaims at 5.25%. "Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth," the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. Accordingly, the FOMC said it "judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably." Fed officials are "monitoring the situation" and are "prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets," the FOMC said. Stock futures, which had been broadly lower before the Fed's announcement, turned high almost immediately.




 
wherestip
wherestip  Identity Verified
United States
Local time: 10:20
Chinese to English
+ ...
Capitalism Aug 17, 2007

chance wrote:

如果不从现在的完全自由市场经济逻辑里解放出来,即便解决了这次危机,过不了多久其它危机东山再起



是啊. 之所以有《资本论》等学说呢. But that stuff is even more over my head.


 
chance (X)
chance (X)
French to Chinese
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER
文革中学得那点儿早忘了,当时我们的环境根本不可能结合实际 Aug 17, 2007

现在结合实际了,又没时间读书了,太厚,还要糊口。但是我们生活在这种现实中,没有资本论,也可以有自己的思考和各国的探索。

wherestip wrote:

chance wrote:

如果不从现在的完全自由市场经济逻辑里解放出来,即便解决了这次危机,过不了多久其它危机东山再起



是啊. 之所以有《资本论》等学说呢. But that stuff is even more over my head.


 
wherestip
wherestip  Identity Verified
United States
Local time: 10:20
Chinese to English
+ ...
思考和探索 Aug 17, 2007

chance wrote:

现在结合实际了,又没时间读书了,太厚,还要糊口。但是我们生活在这种现实中,没有资本论,也可以有自己的思考和各国的探索。



chance,

That's very true.

我懂得每人都有一定的正义心和人生抱负, 否则也不会有中国近代史上的革命战争和新中国的诞生 ... 等等、等等

我父母当初回国, 也是读了点儿马列以及出于爱国. 可回去后满不是那么回事, as we all know

现在中国向国际所谓"接轨"、"靠拢", 我当然有一定的想法. 不过我肯定是以第三者的眼光来看的.



[Edited at 2007-08-17 14:09]


 
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