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we estimate the chance of the recession lasting for only two quarters is most likely
Explanation: With due apologies for violating the rule of having to offer a translation in the header, my guess is the structure of the sentence above is not ransparent to you.
'duurde het grootst' is *not* one phrase.
'de kans dat de recessie twee maanden duurt wordt het grootst geacht' (a variant of your text), and lo and behold, it means the assessment that the recession lasted two month is *most likely*.