German translation: erwarteter/prognostizierter Gewinnbeitrag
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Explanation: basicly the same as above, making the point that in the beginning you estimated and expected a certain profit which, of cause, was then "theoretical" or "expected" which would be more common in German.
You are assuming that the actual profit contribution differed. Then it is reasonable to think that "theoretical" is meant in the sense of "estimated". But without more context you cannot be sure. Therefore I would tend to a literal translation ("theoretischer Gewinnbeitrag"). That provides the same (unclear) message as the English term.