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3% obespechennosti

English translation: 3% exceedance probability

13:18 Dec 17, 2003
Russian to English translations [PRO]
/ shipping / weather forecast
Russian term or phrase: 3% obespechennosti
A certificate for a ship to make a single passage (trip by river) from St Petersburg to Kalinigrad.
The ship is permitted to make this journey, provided the long-term weather forecast is OK, and:
"...pri vysote volny 3% obespechennosti ne bolee 2.5 m"
I don't see the logic of this. Can you clarify what the whole phrase means?

(Answers in Cyrillic are fine).
Mark Cole
Local time: 20:42
English translation:3% exceedance probability
Explanation:

Деление внутренних водных бассейнов на разряды и обеспеченность высот волн приведены в разд. 4 "Классификация водных бассейнов".

7.3. Внутренние водные бассейны, включая устьевые участки с морским режимом судоходства, классифицируются по разрядам "Л", "Р", "О" и "М" в зависимости от их ветро-волнового режима исходя из следующих условий:

1) в бассейнах разрядов "Л", "Р" и "О" волны 1%-ной обеспеченности высотой соответственно 0,6, 1,2 и 2,0 м имеют суммарную повторяемость (обеспеченность) не более 4% навигационного времени;

2) в бассейнах разряда "М" волны 3%-ной обеспеченности высотой 3,0 м имеют суммарную повторяемость (обеспеченность) не более 4% навигационного времени.

http://www.infoflot.ru/doc/pravila/klass_ships.htm

... The exceedance probability for a specified wave height. ... is required when calculating maximum individual wave height. ... to determine the number of waves that will ...
www.globalwavestatisticsonline.com/ Help/extreme_wave_height.htm

--------------------------------------------------
Note added at 19 mins (2003-12-17 13:37:28 GMT)
--------------------------------------------------

Mark, check the above link to get an idea of what \"обеспеченность\" (exeedance probability) is.
Selected response from:

Vladimir Pochinov
Russian Federation
Local time: 21:42
Grading comment
Thank you very much. Now everything falls into place. Before, there was a conflict between what I thought the Russian SHOULD mean, and the (to me) confusing way it was expressed. I take it the underlying meaning is: the waves should preferably be no more than 2.5 metres high, and there should be only a 3% probability that they will exceed this height.
4 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



Summary of answers provided
5 +1probability
Yuri Smirnov
4 +23% exceedance probability
Vladimir Pochinov
4 +1with a 3% chance of...
GaryG


  

Answers


6 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): +1
with a 3% chance of...


Explanation:
Apparently that's what it means here in this context

GaryG
Local time: 15:42
Native speaker of: Native in EnglishEnglish
PRO pts in pair: 3430

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  Yuri Smirnov: The meaning is there. May be, not so much a chance as a regular predictability, probability, but still your guess is close. I mean, a chance is unpredictable, here, it's the very predictability.
2 mins
  -> Thanks, Yuri. I was a bit suspicious because of the unusual precision specified when talking about a weather forecast
Login to enter a peer comment (or grade)

7 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 5/5 peer agreement (net): +1
probability


Explanation:
In this case обеспеченность is a synonym of вероятность.

flood probability — обеспеченность паводка, повторяемость [вероятность] паводка


--------------------------------------------------
Note added at 12 mins (2003-12-17 13:30:07 GMT)
--------------------------------------------------

A definition:
Обеспеченность гидрологической величины
Обеспеченность гидрологической величины - вероятность того, что рассматриваемое значение гидрологической величины может быть превышено. Различают:
- вероятность ежегодного превышения для явлений, наблюдаемых только один раз в году;
- вероятность превышения среди совокупности всех возможных значений для явлений, которые могут наблюдаться несколько раз в году;
- вероятность превышения в рассматриваемом фиксированном пункте;
- вероятность превышения на рассматриваемой территории в любом пункте
http://www.glossary.ru/cgi-bin/gl_sch2.cgi?RDokwurujo,lxqol!...

--------------------------------------------------
Note added at 14 mins (2003-12-17 13:32:23 GMT)
--------------------------------------------------

So, it may be some \"exceedence probabilty\" or whatever...

Yuri Smirnov
Local time: 22:42
Native speaker of: Native in BelarusianBelarusian, Native in RussianRussian
PRO pts in pair: 922

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  Alexander Demyanov
47 mins
  -> Спасибо
Login to enter a peer comment (or grade)

15 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): +2
3% exceedance probability


Explanation:

Деление внутренних водных бассейнов на разряды и обеспеченность высот волн приведены в разд. 4 "Классификация водных бассейнов".

7.3. Внутренние водные бассейны, включая устьевые участки с морским режимом судоходства, классифицируются по разрядам "Л", "Р", "О" и "М" в зависимости от их ветро-волнового режима исходя из следующих условий:

1) в бассейнах разрядов "Л", "Р" и "О" волны 1%-ной обеспеченности высотой соответственно 0,6, 1,2 и 2,0 м имеют суммарную повторяемость (обеспеченность) не более 4% навигационного времени;

2) в бассейнах разряда "М" волны 3%-ной обеспеченности высотой 3,0 м имеют суммарную повторяемость (обеспеченность) не более 4% навигационного времени.

http://www.infoflot.ru/doc/pravila/klass_ships.htm

... The exceedance probability for a specified wave height. ... is required when calculating maximum individual wave height. ... to determine the number of waves that will ...
www.globalwavestatisticsonline.com/ Help/extreme_wave_height.htm

--------------------------------------------------
Note added at 19 mins (2003-12-17 13:37:28 GMT)
--------------------------------------------------

Mark, check the above link to get an idea of what \"обеспеченность\" (exeedance probability) is.

Vladimir Pochinov
Russian Federation
Local time: 21:42
Native speaker of: Russian
PRO pts in pair: 2213
Grading comment
Thank you very much. Now everything falls into place. Before, there was a conflict between what I thought the Russian SHOULD mean, and the (to me) confusing way it was expressed. I take it the underlying meaning is: the waves should preferably be no more than 2.5 metres high, and there should be only a 3% probability that they will exceed this height.

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  Alexander Demyanov
39 mins
agree  Jack slep
6 hrs
Login to enter a peer comment (or grade)



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