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Chinese to English: Four predictions for the housing market in 2017: more control measures, interest rate rises, stable prices, and quicker pace in M&As General field: Bus/Financial Detailed field: Business/Commerce (general)
Source text - Chinese 2017楼市四大猜想：调控持续加息预期 房价走稳并购加速
Translation - English Four predictions for the housing market in 2017: more control measures, interest rate rises, stable prices, and quicker pace in M&As
2017-01-05 02:04 Beijing Morning Post
The Central Economic Work Conference has made it clear that 'houses are for living, not for flipping' and since the beginning of December, 2016, decision-makers have already clarified property-related control measures on six separate occasions.
What will happen in 2017? Will house prices go down or up? As the new year begins, we make four predictions for the property market.
On December 14, 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference set a clear tone for housing market controls in 2017, with a dual focus on reducing oversupply and letting air out of the housing bubble, as well as speeding up research on establishing long-term mechanisms for the housing market.
On December 29 and 30, the Housing Ministry published a Notice of the Leading Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on Inspecting Reforms, which took a pointed look at the control of house prices in overheated urban markets, and oversupply in third- and fourth-tier cities and towns. The ministry also published a list of 21 property developers that violated sales regulations.
In fact, in December 2016 alone, decision-makers clarified controls and regulations relating to the housing market on six separate occasions.
Looking at the attitude of regulators, it’s clear that maintaining stability remains the key topic for 2017. It is predicted that in 2017, control measures will continue in overheated urban markets. As long as house prices increase, policies will follow: this follows the same logic as moves to control financial risk in the macro environment.
At the same time, supply-side structural reforms such as those tackling oversupply in third- and forth-tier cities will also be extended. In addition to providing major policy-level support, this approach can also feed into efforts to improve overall city fundamentals. It is expected that control measures for individual cities are to be improved based on the situation in those cities, in a ‘one city, one policy’ approach.
Interest rate hikes
The housing market was hot in the third quarter of 2016. This had a lot to do with the easing of credit policies, as credit is an important factor impacting house prices over the short-term.
Following Shanghai’s lead, on December 23, 2016, Hangzhou became the second city to introduce a policy of checking housing and loan records to determine a buyer’s number of homes and therefore the ratio of their down payment. This policy, which has been called the strictest housing control there is, may be rolled out further, and has become a sword of Damocles hanging above all overheated urban markets.
The introduction of the policy directly impacts the volume of transactions and the movement of house prices in the market.
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Chinese to English (Institute of Linguists Educational Trust (Chartered Institute of Linguists), verified)
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