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Source text - Spanish Goldman recomienda protegerse ante un posible impago por parte de España
Goldman Sachs considera que una de las ocho mejores inversiones del año 2010 en el mundo puede ser la compra de seguros para protegerse del riesgo de impago de la deuda pública que emite el Gobierno español.
Los principales economistas y analistas de Goldman reunieron ayer a varias decenas de inversores en Londres, a quienes recomendaron la adquisición de credit default swaps (CDS) sobre los bonos públicos a cinco años de España, y la venta de los mismos instrumentos en el caso de Irlanda.
Los CDS son unos seguros que protegen a su comprador del riesgo de impago del activo subyacente. Ahora, el coste de esos instrumentos para la deuda pública española se sitúa en un 1,26% anual sobre el valor del bono a cinco años. Es decir, el propietario de un millón de euros en deuda de España debe invertir 12.600 euros anuales para protegerse de su impago.
Jim OŽNeill, economista jefe de Goldman, cree que el diferencial entre los CDS de España e Irlanda puede reducirse en 2010 de 70 a 20 puntos básicos. Es decir, los españoles van a subir de precio (lo que implica una mayor percepción de riesgo) y los irlandeses van a bajar. En las últimas semanas, el diferencial ya se ha reducido hasta los 35 puntos básicos, según datos de la firma de análisis Markit.
Francesco Garzarelli, director general de análisis de mercados en Goldman, explica que "España e Irlanda tienen una situación económica similar. Ambos países sufren una fuerte crisis inmobiliaria, ambos están en recesión y ambos tienen un elevado déficit público. Es lógico que los spreads (márgenes) de los CDS vayan a converger".
Translation - English Goldman recommends hedging against a possible default by Spain
Goldman Sachs believes that one of the eight best investments in 2010 could be the purchase of insurance against the risk of default on bonds issued by the Spanish government.
Goldman’s leading economists and analysts met yesterday with dozens of investors in London, to whom they recommended purchasing credit default swaps (CDS) on five-year Spanish government bonds, and selling the same instruments in the case of Ireland.
CDS are a form of insurance that protect the purchaser from the risk of default in the underlying asset. The cost of these instruments for Spanish government debt is currently an annual 1.26% of the value of five-year bonds, i.e. the owner of one million euros of bonds has to invest €12,600 annually to protect himself from default.
Jim O’Neill, Goldman’s chief economist, believes that the spread between Spanish and Irish CDS could fall from 70 to 20 basis points in 2010, i.e. the price of Spanish CDS will rise and the Irish equivalent will fall. In recent weeks, the spread is already down by 35 basis points, according to data from analysts Markit.
Francesco Garzarelli, executive director for market analysis at Goldman, explains that “Spain and Ireland have a similar economic situation. Both countries are going through a serious real estate crisis, both are in recession and both have a high public deficit. It is logical that their CDS spreads should converge”.
English to Spanish: La inflación en Reino Unido General field: Social Sciences
Source text - English Record surge in UK inflation
Inflation jumped at a record rate in December, official figures showed today.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) hit 2.9 per cent last month - much higher than expected by the City - compared with just 1.9 per cent in November.
The surge was because VAT was unchanged last month compared with the Government's temporary cut to 15 per cent to help the economy a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
Far less discounting from retailers in the run-up to Christmas last month and unchanged fuel prices compared with sharp falls a year earlier added to the inflationary pressure, the ONS said.
The jump to 2.9 per cent in December is the biggest ever rise in the annual rate of CPI inflation in a single month, the ONS said.
The extraordinary factors take the CPI above the Bank of England's 2 per cent target for the first time since last May and make an open letter from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to the Chancellor virtually certain when inflation figures for January are released next month.
This is because of the return of VAT to 17.5 per cent this month, which will add to inflation when contrasted with 12 months earlier when the tax was unchanged.
Translation - Spanish Aumento récord de la inflación en Reino Unido
La inflación registró una subida sin precedentes en diciembre, según cifras oficiales publicadas hoy.
El Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) alcanzó el 2,9 por ciento el mes pasado – mucho más de lo que esperaba la City – comparado con sólo el 1,9 por ciento en noviembre.
El repentino aumento se produjo porque no hubo cambios en el IVA el mes pasado, mientras que un año antes el gobierno implementó un recorte temporal al 15% para estimular la economía, comentó la Oficina de Estadística Nacional (ONS por sus siglas en inglés).
La ONS dijo que otros factores contribuyeron a la presión inflacionaria: hubo muchos menos descuentos en las tiendas antes de Navidad y los precios del combustible no variaron, mientras que se habían registrado fuertes bajadas un año antes.
El salto hasta el 2,9 por ciento de diciembre es la mayor subida jamás registrada en el CPI anual en un solo mes, dijo la ONS.
Los factores extraordinarios llevan el CPI por encima del objetivo del 2 por ciento del Banco de Inglaterra por primera vez desde el pasado mes de mayo, y hacen casi inevitable que el gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, Mervyn King, tenga que enviar una carta abierta al Ministro de Hacienda cuando se publiquen las cifras de inflación de enero el mes que viene.
Esto se debe a que el IVA vuelve al 17,5% este mes, lo que aumentará la inflación, en contraste con 12 meses antes, cuando el impuesto no varió.
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Bachelor's degree - University of Portsmouth, UK
Experience
Years of experience: 2. Registered at ProZ.com: Nov 2009.
I have lived in Spain for the past 22 years, integrated into Spanish society, rather than living an expatriate lifestyle. During this time I have worked on a bilingual basis. I participated in a creative writing workshop in Spanish forn 3 years. Hence I have excellent writing skills in both English and Spanish.
Relevant education: Diploma in Cultura Hispánica from Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain; BA degree in Latin American Studies with First Class honours from Portsmouth University, UK (Spanish language was a core subject). Residing in Spain 1.5 years 1972-73; residing in various Latin American countries 1 year 1974-75; residing in Spain continuously since 1992.
Worked for Barclays Bank (leading UK international bank): 3.5 years in Economics department; 5.5 years in London Treasury; 17 years in Madrid Treasury. Have taken early retirement. While in Madrid Treasury, I frequently did/supervised/checked translations (Sp-Eng and Eng-Sp) relating to accounting and treasury matters.
Current freelance activity: occasional academic articles on history and politics (English to Spanish) for the journal 'Historia y Política'; monthly bulletin on Spanish labour market 'Avance del Mercado Laboral' (Spanish to English); occasional documents for Analistas Financieros (economic-financial consultancy).
Expertise 