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Chinese to English: MINI General field: Marketing Detailed field: Automotive / Cars & Trucks
Source text - Chinese MINI代表着一种特立独行和藐视权威，同时深藏不露的智慧，一种既古典灵动又精巧微缩的疾行方式，一种派生自节约型欧洲社会形态的自我觉醒。气质内敛却又无法平庸的MINI，注定是事业进入高峰期的个性人士们完美生活的重要组成部分，彭雄浑便是他们中的一员。他开着MINI一路前行，越走，越看到天澄地阔。
Translation - English An embodiment of uniqueness, defiance of authority, and profound wisdom, MINI is a way of scud with classical flexibility and exquisite conciseness, a self-awareness originated from European social formation of thrift. With its introvert but extraordinary quality, MINI is bound to be a major composure for those in pursuit of marvelousness as they ascend their career pinnacle, to accomplish the perfection of their life-Peng Xionghun is one of them. As he dashes forward with his MINI, magnificent scenery of much greater amplitude comes above the horizon.
English to Chinese: EQUITY BANK And Dignity for All General field: Bus/Financial Detailed field: Finance (general)
Source text - English Founded in 1984, the publicly traded, Nairobi-based microfinance leader provides retail banking and microfinance services nationally and across adjacent countries to a predominantly low-income demographic. With roughly 3.4 million account holders across Uganda and Kenya (comprising over 57 percent of all Kenyan bank accounts), Equity Bank is Kenya’s largest bank in terms of market capitalization, as well the biggest African majority-owned company in East and Central Africa. Led by Chief Executive Officer Dr. James Mwangi, who has reached out to the country’s “unbanked” through inclusive finance, the company has transformed itself from a loss-making microfinance lender into a full-fledged, publicly listed commercial bank underpinned by its mission to transform peasant farming into small-scale commercial farming.
Translation - Chinese 这家公开上市的小额信贷领袖公司成立于1984年，位于内罗毕，该公司主要为肯尼亚本国及邻国范围内的低收入人群提供零售银行及小额贷款服务。Equity Bank在乌干达和肯尼亚拥有大约三百四十万账户持有人（占肯尼亚所有银行账户的57%），就市场资本总值而言是肯尼亚最大的银行，也是东非和中非最大的非洲多数控股公司。该银行领导者为首席执行官詹姆斯•姆旺吉博士（Dr. James Mwangi），他通过普惠金融覆盖了该国家“无基本银行账户”的人群，公司自身从亏损的小额信贷方转型为成熟的公开上市商业银行，该银行的基础使命是将小农经济转型为小规模的商业化农业。
English to Chinese: Is the US Economy Freefalling? General field: Social Sciences Detailed field: Economics
Source text - English This Outlook will review that territory to
provide perspective about the current position
and the likely trajectory of the US economy.
Precedent predicts that economic activity will
expand at a pace insufficient to make much
progress in reducing the unemployment rate.
This sizable resource slack should help hold
inflation steady in the face of depreciation of
the exchange value of the dollar.
An economy not generating much
momentum is less resilient to adverse shocks.
And with the current backdrop of multiple
European governments teetering on the brink
of default, investors still backpedalling from
risk, and US politicians itching for the next
fight, adverse shocks loom especially ominous.
That said, firms have liquid balance sheets and
equity markets are providing remarkably high
earnings relative to their prices. Economic
expansion could be rejuvenated, but it will
likely have to come from within, as US policymakers
are unlikely to provide a spark from
outside. Netting across the various risks and
factoring in this policy inertia, the chance that
the economy slips into another recession
within a year is about four in ten.
Surprised Each Winter
by the Snow
Economic forecasts rely importantly on an
intuitive statistical regularity. With the passage
of time, many key magnitudes, such as
output, consumption, and the unemployment
rate, tend to home in to their long-term
trends. Moreover, when they are far from
home, they hurry back faster. This was the
engine underlying many projections of rapid recovery and
expansion following the recession spanning late 2007 to
mid-2009. Forecasters were confident of a “V-shaped”
recovery and expansion because a sharp recession that
pulls activity well below its mean should be followed by an
equally sharp rebound as activity moves back to its mean.
In any event, two years after the low point in the business
cycle, dated as June 2009 by the National Bureau of
Economic Research, the United States is still in recovery.
That is, as shown in figure 1, real gross domestic product
(GDP) has not yet regained its mid-2008 peak. Over that
period, economic forecasts have been marked lower and
lower.Acase in point comes from the survey of participants
of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed
surveys all its governors and bank presidents four times per
year about the outlook and summarizes the range of views
expressed. Figure 2 plots the central tendency and midpoint
of the forecasts of real GDP growth for this year from the
eleven different surveys since the start of 2009. Early on,
when the economy was still shrinking, Fed officialsbelieved that real GDP would expand about 4.5 percent in
2011. For just about each quarter since, the projection has
been marked down, most recently to 2.75 percent. To put
matters in perspective, the current high end of the range is
below the low end of the range for the prior ten surveys.
Still, the Fed survey of June seems outdated, at least as
judged by recent revisions from private-sector forecasters.
Everything Old Seems New Again
Mean reversion is a pretty good bet to describe typical
post–World War II recoveries. But we are not living through
a typical cycle. Rather, the United States experienced a
wrenching financial crisis, and recoveries from those are
lengthy and the subsequent economic expansions are
tepid.3 The paper “After the Fall” looked at the fifteen worst
financial crises of the second half of the twentieth century,
a sample that includes advanced and emerging-market
economies, and focused on economic outcomes in the
decade before and after the crises. The median experience of
real GDP growth in these countries is plotted as the solid
line in figure 3a. (To read the chart, note that the time series
for each country has been shifted so year zero marks the
onset of the financial crisis.) As is evident, a financial crisis
is followed by a severe recession and initially subpar recovery.
On average, as indicated by the dashed lines, real GDP
growth slows about 1.5 percentage points in the decade after
the crisis relative to the one before. With output first contracting
and then recovering only hesitantly, the unemployment
rate rises and stays stubbornly high. Indeed, in ten out
of fifteen cases studied, the unemployment rate does not
return to its precrisis low for the entire decade after the fall.
Three features appear to shape the two decades bracketing
a crisis, writing a script that the United States now
appears to be following. First, there is a pronounced leverage
cycle. Increases in debt relative to income allow an
economy to spend more than it produces and fuel an asset
price boom that sets the stage for a bust. After the bust,
households and firms struggle to reduce their balancesheet
exposure, exerting a drag on spending. Since 2007,
US households have reduced their total liabilities to disposable
income about 20 percentage points, but default has
been important in lowering the numerator of that ratio.
Moreover, the overall debt-to-disposable-income ratio still
stands at about 120 percent. Nonfinancial firms, in contrast,
have done a better job in bolstering their balance sheets,
including by accumulating sizable liquid assets.
Second, a country usually leaves unfinished business
after a banking crisis. Problematic financial contracts
litter bank balance sheets in the form of bad mortgage
loans. They also impede the ability to make commitments
of the one out of five mortgage-holding households
that have debts valued more than their homes.
This unfinished business has also prevented the clearing
of the housing market in the United States, seen in the
five-year run of declining home prices.
Third, policymakers typically respond to a financial crisis
by raising the cost of finance, imposing an edifice of new
regulation, and making appropriate business practices more
uncertain. An efficient regulatory response to financialexcesses is understandable and probably
generates longer-term benefits. But in the
imposition phase, it penalizes intermediation
and innovation. In the US case, the
Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation is
exhibit A for regulatory backlash.
For Every Time There
Is a Season
The risk to the US outlook is not that it
will repeat the precedent in “After the
Fall” of a deep recession and hesitant recovery. That has
already happened. Rather, the risk is that the foundation
for sustained expansion after that pain has not been set.
Figure 3b identifies the key drivers of economic expansion
in the fifteen episodes we studied. As plotted by the
solid blue line, real equity prices rebound sharply in the
median performance. House prices (the dashed green line)
continue to sag in real terms, but their rate of decline
slows. Four years after the fall (which is five years after
the asset market peak), capital gains on
equities are driving wealth creation.
But this is not so, yet, in the United
States. The table tracks the median
performance of the fifteen crisis countries
and the United States five years after the
asset market peak. In the median case, a
country has recovered its previous peak in
production, with real GDP per capita up
3.7 percent, on net. The US recovery is yet incomplete,
with real per-capita output 2.2 percent off its 2006
level. The two rows below give the associated asset market
performance, showing that the real values of equities and
homes track well below the median experience.
Not shown because it was not part of our study, significant
depreciation of the national currency on foreign
exchange markets often accompanies financial crises. In
our case, the US dollar’s role as a reserve currency has
blunted that force. As a consequence, overall financial
conditions have been much less supportive of spending
and the private sector has been a less reliable engine of
recovery than in the historical norm.
Free Falling?
An economy expanding at a subpar rate is less resilient
in the face of adverse shocks. That is, the country’s
economy is a plane flying slowly and close to the ground.
This combination makes wind shear and pilot error more
consequential. Indeed, in seven of the fifteen cases studied
in “After the Fall,” economies suffered what could reasonably
be called two recessions in the decade after the crisis.4
The US economy is flying over a landscape with a high
risk of wind shear. Among the sources of concern is the
uncertain status of several European governments that may
hit the wall of a sudden stop of external credit. Such an
event, or official action to informally restructure outstanding
debt, could call into question the viability
of some large European banks. A replay,
if only fainter, of the events of the 2008 fall
would lead investors to withdraw even
more from risk taking, taking another dent
out of wealth.
Closer to home, domestic financial institutions
remain hindered by prior lending
mistakes. If the unemployment rate tracks
high, as seems likely, other problems on their loan books
may emerge. In addition, the debate on the debt ceiling was
startling proof of deep dysfunction in the political process.
There are more fights to come, including on the budget.
Indeed, if the economy performs poorly, it may well be the
case that Congress has to revisit the debt ceiling sooner
than currently anticipated. Taken together, additional fiscal
restraint may be in the cards. If it comes in the run-up to
national elections, such a congressional debate will focus
on low-hanging budgetary fruit of a one-off nature, rather
than being woven into a longer-term strategy that reassures
the private sector. For these reasons, the near-term chance
of a second recession is high, consistent with the experience
of seven out of fifteen countries in “After the Fall.”
根据图表一所显示，实际国内生产总值(GDP)尚未恢复到2008年中期的顶点。从那时开始，关于经济的预测值越来越低。其中一个很好的案例是联邦公开市场委员会（Federal Open Market Committee ）(FOMC)参与者的调研。联邦政府每年会对其所有政府官员和银行总裁进行四次调研，询问他们有关经济前景的问题，并总结他们所表达的观点。图表二标示自2009年开始，11份调研中对于本年实际GDP增长预测的中心趋势和中点值。早些时候，当经济仍在缩减时，联邦政府官员相信实际GDP会在2011年扩大约4.5%。此后几乎每个季度的预测都在下降，近期下降到2.75%。综合来看，当前预测的高点位于此前十次调研的低点以下。此外，不少私营经济预测家认为联邦政府六月所作的这份调研已经过时了，他们近期对预测结果进行了修订。
图表三
历史的覆辙
二战后的典型经济复苏可以用均值回归来描述。但是我们所生活的时代并不处于典型周期。我们或许可以这样描述：美国经历了一场痛苦的金融危机，而危机的复苏缓慢，而接下来的经济扩张也不够迅猛。《坠落之后》(After the Fall)一文纵观了20世纪下半叶十五次最严重的金融危机，这些案例包括先进经济和新兴市场经济，并聚焦于危机前后十年的经济结果。
对于美国来说，未来的风险已经不在于它将重复《坠落之后》（After the Fall）文中所阐述的深度衰退和缓慢复苏的轨迹。那些轨迹已经发生了。真正的风险是没有建立痛苦过后持续扩张的基础。从图表三b中我们可以看到十五个调研案例中经济扩张的关键推动力。图中蓝色实线标出，实际股票价格在中位(median)时急剧回弹。房屋价格（绿色虚线）则继续下陷，而下降的速度却在放缓。危机后四年（资产市场达到顶峰后五年），通过股票获得的资本收益正在推动财富创造。
的确，如果经济表现不佳，国会可能在比预期的更早的时间重新探讨最高债务限额。综合考虑，有可能出现额外的财政限制措施。如果这种措施在大选预热时期出现，那么国会的探讨将会聚焦于预算的"低果先摘"原则，而不会制定长期战略消除私营经济的顾虑。出于这些原因，短期内出现第二次衰退的可能性很高，《坠落之后》（After the Fall）的十五国案例中有七个国家也有过类似经验。
【文章信息】：文森特·R.莱恩哈特姆（Vincent R. Reinhart），美国联邦储备委员会货币事务局前官员，AEI常驻学者。
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