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English to Chinese: CNOOC LTD General field: Bus/Financial Detailed field: Business/Commerce (general)
Source text - English CNOOC Ltd
中国海洋石油有限公司
Volume unexpectedly down QoQ
成交量同比意外下降
Market may be disappointed with Q1 production volume
市场有可能对一季度的产量表示失望
CNOOC announced a Q1/2011 production volume of 85.2mmboe (947kboed). This is
up about 27% YoY but represents a QoQ decline of about 6%. We believe a QoQ
decline is not within market expectation and hence believe this could spark nearterm
share price weakness. According to management, the production decline
resulted from a combination of natural decline as well as the fact that lower
production sharing contract volumes overseas accompany higher oil prices.
中海油公司宣布了Q1/2011生产总量为85.2百万桶（约合947kboed）。这是较去年同期上涨了大约27%,但是代表季比下降了大约6%。我们相信一个季度的下降是不符合市场预期的，从而相信这有可能引发短期股价的疲软。根据管理、产量递减源自于自然下降这一事实,降低生产共享海外契约量，伴随更高油价。
Oil prices remain strong and may surprise on the upside
油价依然强劲，可能会有惊喜的上升态势
While production appears lower than expectation, we believe the addition of 4 new
domestic projects coupled with acquisitions overseas (higher stake in Pan America
Energy, for example) should help the company meet its 8-12% production volume
target this year. At the same time, CNOOC’s Q1 realised oil price averaged near
US$100/bbl and is therefore running above UBS forecast for US$98.8/bbl.
当产量出现低于预期的时候，我们相信，除了新的4个国内项目结合海外并购（例如，泛美能源更高的股权）应该帮助公司实现今年目标的8-12%的产量。与此同时，中海油第一季度实现油价格平均接近100美元/桶，因此运行以上瑞银（UBS）预测为98.8美元/桶。
Downgrade to Neutral; prefer PetroChina (0857.HK: Buy)
下调评级到中性；喜好中石油(0857. HK:买入)
CNOOC’s share price is up about 20% from its February low of HK$16.1/sh. The
stock has recently traded within 10% of our HK$22/sh price target. As a result, we
are downgrading our rating from Buy to Neutral. We make no changes to our EPS
estimates and would look for a drop in CNOOC’s share price before potentially
revisiting our rating. We prefer PetroChina (Buy).
中海油的股价从其二月份的HK$16.1/股低上涨20%左右。这只股票的最近交易在我们目标股价HK$22/股的10%以内。因此，我们下调买入评级到中性。我们对每股利润的估计不会改变，估计可能会在中海油股价出现一个下跌之前，重新审视我们的评级。我们喜欢购买中石油。
Valuation: Price target HK$22/sh
估值：价格目标HK$22/股
We use a DCF valuation method that assumes a WACC of 9.3% and long-term
Brent crude oil price of US$95/bbl. Our price target implies a PE of 14.1x (11E).
我们用一个理想的贴现现金流估值方法，即假设——加权平均资金成本为9.3%和长期布伦特原油期货价格是US$95/桶。我们的目标价格隐含着是聚乙烯 是14.1倍(11E )
PetroChina
Refinery operations a drag on Q1
中石油
在炼油业务上拖累第一季度
Q1 net profit up 15% YoY but down 7% QoQ
第一季度净利润比去年同期增长15%,但比上一季度（季比）下降了7%
PetroChina reported Q1/2011 net profit of Rmb37.2b (up 15% YoY, down 7% QoQ
and 22% of our 2011 estimate for Rmb172b). UBS expected earnings would be flat
QoQ. A refining and chemical segment loss of Rmb3.7b versus our expectation for
break-even was the key source of surprise. Refining alone recorded a Rmb6.1b
operating loss while petrochemicals recorded an operating profit of Rmb2.4b.
中石油报2011年第一季度净利润为人民币37.2b(比去年同期增长15%，比上一季度（季比）下降了7%，是我们2011年估计的净利润人民币172b的22%)。瑞银(UBS)预计盈利将持平季。 一项炼油和化工部门的亏损人民币3.7b，对抗我们期望的盈亏平衡是惊讶的主要来源。单是炼油部门记录亏损为人民币6.1b元，石化记录盈利为人民币2.4b。
All business segments up except refining
所有的业务领域都上涨除了炼油
Operating profits for other business segments were all up including E&P (up 33%
to Rmb45.9b), marketing (up 15% to Rmb7.7b) and pipeline (up 14% to
Rmb6.9b). Oil production growth was strong at about 4.3% YoY during the quarter
while gas production grew about 7.1% YoY. Following strong domestic demand,
gasoline and diesel sales were up 12% and 18% YoY, respectively.
其他业务领域的营业利润都上涨了包括石油的勘探和生产（涨幅33%达到了人民币45.9b）,销售（涨幅15%达到了人民币7.7b）以及管道建设（涨幅14%达到了人民币6.9b）.石油生产增长强劲，第一季度同比增幅为4.3%,而天然气生产增长大约同比增幅为7.1%。由于国内需求强劲，汽油和柴油的销售量比去年同期分别增长了12%，18%。
A further sharp rise in oil prices would be the key risk
油价进一步急剧上升将是主要风险
While a further material rise in oil prices could produce further refining losses
during Q211, we expect a return to refining profit in H211. In any case, a further
spike in oil prices is not within our forecast, and we believe that domestic refined
product prices will be raised again next month. Following the result, we expect
near-term share price weakness. We maintain our 12-month Buy rating.
虽然石油价格的进一步实质性上升可能导致在Q2/2011期间炼油的进一步损失，我们期待能在H2/2011的炼油利润中得到回报。在任何情况下，进一步探讨抑制石油价格飙升的问题不在我们的预测之内，我们相信国内成品的价格将在下个月再上调。根据这一结果，我们期待近期股价的疲软。我们维持我们的12个月买入评级。
Valuation: Price target HK$13.2/sh
评估：目标价格13.2港元/股
We value PetroChina’s upstream business segment using a DCF methodology
(9.3% WACC). We value the pipeline business segment at 8.4x EV/EBITDA and
value refining, chemical and marketing operations at 6.0x EV/EBITDA.
我们非常重视中石油的上游业务部门使用一致的贴现现金流方法（加权平均资金成本=9.3%）.我们珍视管道建设业务部门达到税前盈利8.4倍，以及评估炼油、化学和营销操作的税前盈利6.0倍。
Housing relief?
住房救济？
Preview: Housing market index to hold steady at low level
预览：房屋市场指数在较低水平上保持稳定
(1) We forecast no change in the housing market index (HMI) in April after a
modest rise in March. Other housing-related indicators already reported in the
month have been mixed, with the mortgage purchase applications up solidly, but
homebuilders’ stock prices down slightly. (2) Of several Fed speakers Monday,
only Dallas Fed President Fisher is set to speak on the economy.
(1) 我们预测三月份的温和增长之后，四月份房屋市场指数(HMI)没有变化。其他和房产有关的已经报道的指标喜忧参半，购买按揭的应用坚挺地上涨，但是住宅建筑商的股价稍微下降了。
(2) 周一，美联储的发言人中，只有达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁费舍尔被设定为谈一谈经济。
Review: Headline inflation, manufacturing survey and production jump,
评：整体通货膨胀、生产调查和生产跳跃
(1) Consumer prices (CPI) jumped 0.5% m/m (0.549% un-rounded) in March
(UBS: 0.4%, consensus: 0.5%) as energy prices jumped 3.5% during the month.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core CPI rose by 0.1% m/m
(0.135% un-rounded) (UBS: 0.1%, consensus: 0.2%) or 1.2% y/y. However,
looking at the acceleration in core inflation, the three-month annualized rate of
core inflation is now at 2.0% versus 0.4% in October (pre-QE2).
(1) 在3月(CPI)消费者价格上涨了0.5% m/m(0.549%非四舍五入) (瑞银(UBS):0.4% 共识:0.5%)这个月能源价格上涨了3.5%。除了波动较大的食品和能源因素,核心消费者物价指数上涨0.1% m / m (0.135% 非四舍五入)(瑞银(UBS):0.1%,共识:0.2%)或者比去年同期增长1.2%。 然而,
看看加速的核心通货膨胀,三个月按年率计算的现在正处于核心的通货膨胀为2.0%和0.4% 十月份（预QE2)。
(2) The Empire State manufacturing survey suggests April got off to a healthy
start as the index rose to 21.7 (UBS: 19.5, consensus: 17.0) versus a 17.5 reading in
March. While some of this is a “catch up” – the Empire survey has lagged the ISM
survey – the headline index understates the improvement (the headline series is a
separate question) as new orders, shipments and employment all surged. This
report is particularly encouraging given fears that the Japanese disaster may disrupt
US manufacturing activity.
(2)纽约州制造业调查报告表明,四月，获得了一个健康的开始,指数升至21.7(瑞士银行(UBS)19.5,共识：17.0)相对于三月的报道17.5。当然其中一些是“追赶”——帝国调查落后于喧嚣一时美国供应管理协会调查——大标题有意轻描淡写这些改进即总体消费者价格指数(大标题系列是一个不相干的问题)作为新订单、发货和就业都大幅增加。这报告特别鼓励考虑到担心日本的灾难可能会破坏美国制造业的活跃。
Translation - Chinese CNOOC Ltd
中国海洋石油有限公司
Volume unexpectedly down QoQ
成交量同比意外下降
Market may be disappointed with Q1 production volume
市场有可能对一季度的产量表示失望
CNOOC announced a Q1/2011 production volume of 85.2mmboe (947kboed). This is
up about 27% YoY but represents a QoQ decline of about 6%. We believe a QoQ
decline is not within market expectation and hence believe this could spark nearterm
share price weakness. According to management, the production decline
resulted from a combination of natural decline as well as the fact that lower
production sharing contract volumes overseas accompany higher oil prices.
中海油公司宣布了Q1/2011生产总量为85.2百万桶（约合947kboed）。这是较去年同期上涨了大约27%,但是代表季比下降了大约6%。我们相信一个季度的下降是不符合市场预期的，从而相信这有可能引发短期股价的疲软。根据管理、产量递减源自于自然下降这一事实,降低生产共享海外契约量，伴随更高油价。
Oil prices remain strong and may surprise on the upside
油价依然强劲，可能会有惊喜的上升态势
While production appears lower than expectation, we believe the addition of 4 new
domestic projects coupled with acquisitions overseas (higher stake in Pan America
Energy, for example) should help the company meet its 8-12% production volume
target this year. At the same time, CNOOC’s Q1 realised oil price averaged near
US$100/bbl and is therefore running above UBS forecast for US$98.8/bbl.
当产量出现低于预期的时候，我们相信，除了新的4个国内项目结合海外并购（例如，泛美能源更高的股权）应该帮助公司实现今年目标的8-12%的产量。与此同时，中海油第一季度实现油价格平均接近100美元/桶，因此运行以上瑞银（UBS）预测为98.8美元/桶。
Downgrade to Neutral; prefer PetroChina (0857.HK: Buy)
下调评级到中性；喜好中石油(0857. HK:买入)
CNOOC’s share price is up about 20% from its February low of HK$16.1/sh. The
stock has recently traded within 10% of our HK$22/sh price target. As a result, we
are downgrading our rating from Buy to Neutral. We make no changes to our EPS
estimates and would look for a drop in CNOOC’s share price before potentially
revisiting our rating. We prefer PetroChina (Buy).
中海油的股价从其二月份的HK$16.1/股低上涨20%左右。这只股票的最近交易在我们目标股价HK$22/股的10%以内。因此，我们下调买入评级到中性。我们对每股利润的估计不会改变，估计可能会在中海油股价出现一个下跌之前，重新审视我们的评级。我们喜欢购买中石油。
Valuation: Price target HK$22/sh
估值：价格目标HK$22/股
We use a DCF valuation method that assumes a WACC of 9.3% and long-term
Brent crude oil price of US$95/bbl. Our price target implies a PE of 14.1x (11E).
我们用一个理想的贴现现金流估值方法，即假设——加权平均资金成本为9.3%和长期布伦特原油期货价格是US$95/桶。我们的目标价格隐含着是聚乙烯 是14.1倍(11E )
PetroChina
Refinery operations a drag on Q1
中石油
在炼油业务上拖累第一季度
Q1 net profit up 15% YoY but down 7% QoQ
第一季度净利润比去年同期增长15%,但比上一季度（季比）下降了7%
PetroChina reported Q1/2011 net profit of Rmb37.2b (up 15% YoY, down 7% QoQ
and 22% of our 2011 estimate for Rmb172b). UBS expected earnings would be flat
QoQ. A refining and chemical segment loss of Rmb3.7b versus our expectation for
break-even was the key source of surprise. Refining alone recorded a Rmb6.1b
operating loss while petrochemicals recorded an operating profit of Rmb2.4b.
中石油报2011年第一季度净利润为人民币37.2b(比去年同期增长15%，比上一季度（季比）下降了7%，是我们2011年估计的净利润人民币172b的22%)。瑞银(UBS)预计盈利将持平季。 一项炼油和化工部门的亏损人民币3.7b，对抗我们期望的盈亏平衡是惊讶的主要来源。单是炼油部门记录亏损为人民币6.1b元，石化记录盈利为人民币2.4b。
All business segments up except refining
所有的业务领域都上涨除了炼油
Operating profits for other business segments were all up including E&P (up 33%
to Rmb45.9b), marketing (up 15% to Rmb7.7b) and pipeline (up 14% to
Rmb6.9b). Oil production growth was strong at about 4.3% YoY during the quarter
while gas production grew about 7.1% YoY. Following strong domestic demand,
gasoline and diesel sales were up 12% and 18% YoY, respectively.
其他业务领域的营业利润都上涨了包括石油的勘探和生产（涨幅33%达到了人民币45.9b）,销售（涨幅15%达到了人民币7.7b）以及管道建设（涨幅14%达到了人民币6.9b）.石油生产增长强劲，第一季度同比增幅为4.3%,而天然气生产增长大约同比增幅为7.1%。由于国内需求强劲，汽油和柴油的销售量比去年同期分别增长了12%，18%。
A further sharp rise in oil prices would be the key risk
油价进一步急剧上升将是主要风险
While a further material rise in oil prices could produce further refining losses
during Q211, we expect a return to refining profit in H211. In any case, a further
spike in oil prices is not within our forecast, and we believe that domestic refined
product prices will be raised again next month. Following the result, we expect
near-term share price weakness. We maintain our 12-month Buy rating.
虽然石油价格的进一步实质性上升可能导致在Q2/2011期间炼油的进一步损失，我们期待能在H2/2011的炼油利润中得到回报。在任何情况下，进一步探讨抑制石油价格飙升的问题不在我们的预测之内，我们相信国内成品的价格将在下个月再上调。根据这一结果，我们期待近期股价的疲软。我们维持我们的12个月买入评级。
Valuation: Price target HK$13.2/sh
评估：目标价格13.2港元/股
We value PetroChina’s upstream business segment using a DCF methodology
(9.3% WACC). We value the pipeline business segment at 8.4x EV/EBITDA and
value refining, chemical and marketing operations at 6.0x EV/EBITDA.
我们非常重视中石油的上游业务部门使用一致的贴现现金流方法（加权平均资金成本=9.3%）.我们珍视管道建设业务部门达到税前盈利8.4倍，以及评估炼油、化学和营销操作的税前盈利6.0倍。
Housing relief?
住房救济？
Preview: Housing market index to hold steady at low level
预览：房屋市场指数在较低水平上保持稳定
(1) We forecast no change in the housing market index (HMI) in April after a
modest rise in March. Other housing-related indicators already reported in the
month have been mixed, with the mortgage purchase applications up solidly, but
homebuilders’ stock prices down slightly. (2) Of several Fed speakers Monday,
only Dallas Fed President Fisher is set to speak on the economy.
(1) 我们预测三月份的温和增长之后，四月份房屋市场指数(HMI)没有变化。其他和房产有关的已经报道的指标喜忧参半，购买按揭的应用坚挺地上涨，但是住宅建筑商的股价稍微下降了。
(2) 周一，美联储的发言人中，只有达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁费舍尔被设定为谈一谈经济。
Review: Headline inflation, manufacturing survey and production jump,
评：整体通货膨胀、生产调查和生产跳跃
(1) Consumer prices (CPI) jumped 0.5% m/m (0.549% un-rounded) in March
(UBS: 0.4%, consensus: 0.5%) as energy prices jumped 3.5% during the month.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core CPI rose by 0.1% m/m
(0.135% un-rounded) (UBS: 0.1%, consensus: 0.2%) or 1.2% y/y. However,
looking at the acceleration in core inflation, the three-month annualized rate of
core inflation is now at 2.0% versus 0.4% in October (pre-QE2).
(1) 在3月(CPI)消费者价格上涨了0.5% m/m(0.549%非四舍五入) (瑞银(UBS):0.4% 共识:0.5%)这个月能源价格上涨了3.5%。除了波动较大的食品和能源因素,核心消费者物价指数上涨0.1% m / m (0.135% 非四舍五入)(瑞银(UBS):0.1%,共识:0.2%)或者比去年同期增长1.2%。 然而,
看看加速的核心通货膨胀,三个月按年率计算的现在正处于核心的通货膨胀为2.0%和0.4% 十月份（预QE2)。
(2) The Empire State manufacturing survey suggests April got off to a healthy
start as the index rose to 21.7 (UBS: 19.5, consensus: 17.0) versus a 17.5 reading in
March. While some of this is a “catch up” – the Empire survey has lagged the ISM
survey – the headline index understates the improvement (the headline series is a
separate question) as new orders, shipments and employment all surged. This
report is particularly encouraging given fears that the Japanese disaster may disrupt
US manufacturing activity.
(2)纽约州制造业调查报告表明,四月，获得了一个健康的开始,指数升至21.7(瑞士银行(UBS)19.5,共识：17.0)相对于三月的报道17.5。当然其中一些是“追赶”——帝国调查落后于喧嚣一时美国供应管理协会调查——大标题有意轻描淡写这些改进即总体消费者价格指数(大标题系列是一个不相干的问题)作为新订单、发货和就业都大幅增加。这报告特别鼓励考虑到担心日本的灾难可能会破坏美国制造业的活跃。
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A professional freelance translator-cum-interpreter for English and Chinese. I was born in Shanghai which is a metropolitan city in China. Shanghai, as a modern city, is accepting different cultures and people. I am proud of being a Shanghainese to get used to an international environment.
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