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English to Italian: Expected returns 2019-2023 General field: Bus/Financial Detailed field: Investment / Securities
Source text - English Despite climbing the wall of worry for some time now, patient equity investors have come a long way. At the time of writing, we are celebrating the longest bull market of the modern era, with the S&P 500 surpassing the ‘Great Expansion’ bull market that lasted from October 1990 to March 2000. After an exceptionally tranquil 2017, with implied volatility hitting new lows and global equity markets generating a 23% return, investor patience has been tested this year. Equity investors have enough things to worry about – rising interest rates, flattening yield curves and increased protectionism, to name just a few. The flattening yield curve raises fears of an outright inversion, which has proven to be a reliable indicator for a recession in the past. It reflects the question which is top of mind these days among market participants: how long can this bull market last? Given its length, surely it will die of old age soon. However, if you had judged this bull market by its age and scaled back on equities five years ago – when it surpassed the length of the average bull rally – this would have proven to be an expensive mistake. Investors would have missed out on an additional 53% of cumulative returns for the MSCI World All Country Index. To us, the best way forward is to patiently continue climbing the wall of worry without dwelling too much on the dizzying heights this bull market has already reached.
Some market analysts argue that this bull market is not even close to a record, calling into question the length of its run based on different benchmarks and classifications. The Russell 2000, for example, fell by more than the classic bear market definition of 20% between May 2015 and February 2016.
Focus on earnings growth
Recently, cracks have started to appear in what has so far been a predominantly momentum-driven equity market. The ‘buy the dip’ mentality has lost some steam and the focus has shifted more towards corporate fundamentals. Equities with low leverage, persistent high earnings growth and high return on equity have caught up with momentum stocks. This shift towards corporate earnings seems justified from a historical perspective as the continuation of aging bull markets typically hinges on the generation of sound corporate earnings. The MSCI World return decomposition shows that last year, earnings per share growth determined the bulk of global equity returns. Multiple expansion, which indicates that price appreciation is outpacing earnings growth, is no longer the main driver of returns. The overarching themes may come and go, but within a five- year timespan (and especially given the current phase of the cycle), earnings growth and its underlying business cycle drivers are pivotal.
Translation - Italian Sebbene stiano scalando il muro della preoccupazione già da un bel po', a essere premiati sono stati gli investitori azionari più pazienti. Nel momento in cui scriviamo stiamo vivendo il più lungo bull market dell'era moderna, tanto che l'indice S&P 500 ha surclassato i risultati della "Grande Espansione", la fase rialzista iniziata nell'ottobre del 1990 e terminata nel marzo del 2005. Dopo un 2017 eccezionalmente calmo, in cui la volatilità implicita ha toccato nuovi minimi e il rendimento dei mercati azionari globali si è attestato sul 23%, quest'anno la pazienza degli investitori è stata messa alla prova. Chi investe in azioni inizia ad avere sufficienti motivi di preoccupazione: la crescita dei tassi di interesse, l'appiattimento della curva dei rendimenti e l'inasprimento del protezionismo sono solo alcuni dei possibili esempi. L'appiattimento della curva dei rendimenti solleva il timore di una sua totale inversione, che in passato si è rivelata essere un segnale affidabile dell'arrivo di una recessione. Questo fenomeno rispecchia la domanda che in questi giorni è al centro delle preoccupazioni di tutti gli operatori del mercato: quanto ancora potrà durare questa fase rialzista? Data la sua età avanzata, molto probabilmente il nostro toro morirà presto di vecchiaia. Ma se cinque anni fa, ovvero prima che superasse la vita media di un mercato rialzista, un operatore l'avesse giudicato solo in base alla sua età e avesse di conseguenza ridotto la propria esposizione alle azioni, questa decisione si sarebbe rivelata un costoso errore: il nostro investitore si sarebbe infatti lasciato scappare un ulteriore 53% di rendimenti cumulativi relativi all'MSCI World All Country Index. A nostro avviso il miglior modo di procedere è continuare pazientemente a scalare il muro della preoccupazione, senza rimuginare troppo sui record già frantumati da questo bull market.
Alcuni analisti di mercato sostengono che la reale durata dell'attuale fase rialzista, ben lungi dal rappresentare un record, andrebbe in realtà messa in discussione in base a diversi indici di riferimento e classificazioni. Tra maggio 2015 e febbraio 2016, ad esempio, l'indice Russell 2000 è sceso di oltre il 20%, corrispondente alla definizione classica di fase ribassista.
Crescita degli utili in primo piano
Negli ultimi tempi sono comparse le prime crepe in un mercato azionario che, finora, è stato prevalentemente trainato dal momentum. La strategia del "buy the dip" ha perso parte della sua carica, e l'attenzione si è spostata maggiormente sui fondamentali delle imprese. I titoli azionari di società con un basso rapporto di indebitamento, una crescita degli utili forte e costante e un alta redditività del capitale proprio hanno recuperato terreno rispetto alle azioni caratterizzate da un momentum elevato. Da un punto di vista storico questo spostamento di attenzione verso gli utili societari sembra essere giustificato, dato che il prolungamento della vita di un "toro" già anziano dipende tipicamente dalla generazione di solidi utili societari. La scomposizione dei rendimenti dell'indice MSCI World mostra che lo scorso anno la crescita degli utili per azione ha generato gran parte dei rendimenti azionari globali. La crescita dei multipli, un indicatore del fatto che l'apprezzamento dei titoli procede a un ritmo più veloce di quello della crescita degli utili, ha smesso di essere il principale fattore trainante dei rendimenti. I grandi temi del mondo degli investimenti vanno e vengono, ma di un dato possiamo essere certi: nel corso dei prossimi cinque anni, specialmente considerando l'attuale fase del ciclo economico, la crescita degli utili e i fattori congiunturali sottostanti che la sostengono saranno di cruciale importanza.
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Translation education
Master's degree - University of Pisa
Experience
Years of experience: 2. Registered at ProZ.com: Jun 2018. Became a member: Sep 2020.
Credentials
English to Italian (Consorzio interuniversitario Italian Culture on the Net, verified) English to Italian (Scuola Superiore per Mediatori Linguistici "Gregorio VII", verified)
I offer translation services from English to Italian, specializing in finance, investment, and law.
My activity is driven by a great passion for languages and writing, as well as by the belief that the only way to deliver accurate and effective translations is by developing an in-depth understanding of the subject matter of each source text. In other words, I aim at writing texts that make clients think they were drafted by a finance or a law specialist.
A few highlights from my career so far:
- I worked as an in-house translator for Interactive Brokers, an international financial firm
- I got the "Securities Industry Essentials" certificate, which allows me to work in the brokerage industry in the US
- I am an SDL-certified MT post-editor
- I am a member of ANITI, one of the major Italian translators’ associations
- I maintain and use a personal specialized corpus
- I am an SDL Trados Studio 2021 license owner and proficient user
Should you wish to inquire about my services, start a collaboration, or ask for a price quote, contact me through ProZ.com or send me an email. As I aim to deliver translations of the highest quality and accuracy, please note that I only accept work in my specialty fields.
My work experience
- Freelance translator (April 2017 - March 2019; September 2020 - today).
- Financial translator (EN>IT) at Interactive Brokers, London office (March 2019 - August 2020). Interactive Brokers is "an automated global electronic market maker and broker" (Bloomberg) that offers trade execution and clearing services to institutional and professional clients worldwide.
What I've done: I translated the company's trading and account management platforms, communications with retail and institutional clients, knowledge base articles, and a variety of materials about regulations, procedures, instructions, and other brokerage and financial-related topics.
What I've learned: I acquired hands-on experience and received on-the-job training about a wide range of subjects, such as the financial markets, economics, the brokerage industry, order types, margin trading, securities regulation, anti-money laundering procedures, stocks, bonds, options, futures, mutual funds, ETFs, and much more.
Materials translated
FINANCE/INVESTMENT: annual reports, financial statements, letters to shareholders, economic forecasts, investment outlooks, KIIDs, KIDs, research articles, knowledge base articles, trading and account management platforms.
LAW: contracts, powers of attorney, memoranda of association (UK), articles of incorporation/charters (US), articles of association (UK), bylaws (US), shareholders’ agreements, summons and complaints (US), claim forms and particulars of claim (UK), awards, employment discrimination complaints, judgments, last wills and testaments, certificates.
My education
- Master's degree in specialized translation (English to Italian, specializing in legal and economic-financial translation) at the ICoN Consortium, in collaboration with University of Pisa and University of Genoa, with full marks (110/110) and honors. Furthermore, I did an internship in legal translation and I was awarded a scholarship as the student who achieved the highest grades.
- Master's course in translation and interpreting (English and Spanish to Italian) at SSML Gregorio VII, Rome.
- Bachelor's degree in Philosophy at Roma Tre University with full marks (110/110) and honors.
Certificates and training
- "Machine Translation Post-Editing" certification issued by SDL.
- Securities Industry Essentials, a FINRA exam for prospective industry professionals that assesses the candidate's knowledge of fundamental concepts "such as types of products and their risks; the structure of the securities industry markets, regulatory agencies and their functions; and prohibited practices" (FINRA).
- "Translating and communicating in the EU institutions" (Tradurre e comunicare nelle istituzioni europee) a professional course organized by STL, a school for translators and interpreters.
- IELTS certificate (with a score of 8/9).
- SDL Trados training course and examination at SSML Gregorio VII.
- Microsoft Office Specialist (MOS) certificate, specializing in MS Word.
Other information
- Trainee member of ANITI (Associazione Nazionale Italiana Traduttori e Interpreti), one of the major translators’ associations in Italy.
- CAT tools: SDL Trados Studio 2021, OmegaT.
- I built and constantly update my personal glossaries and a specialized corpus, for which I developed a custom analysis system.
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Member since Sep '20
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