English to Italian Bus/Financial Investment / Securities comparto metalli industriali

Industrial metals defy recession fears


• We expect GDP growth in the US, Europe and Japan to slow to 1.6% yo-y. The weak USD, the income growth, but above all the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus will avoid a downright recession in the US.
• Asia will retain its role as global growth locomotive, but economic growth in China will slow somewhat because of the restrictive monetary policy and the appreciation of the Renminbi. Support for industrial metals will however emerge from the build-up of a strategic commodity reserve.
• We see the industrial metals therefore continue to trade sideways overall.
• Risk indicators, such as the pullback in share prices in China and at the large mining companies as well as the **widening of credit default swap spreads** in Eastern Europe must, however, be monitored closely.